> Earlier this year the hands of the Doomsday Clock moved to two minutes to midnight, as atomic scientists announced that the world is closer to annihilation than it has been in decades.
> As global anxiety takes hold, an increasing number of people are preparing for the worst-case scenario
Am I the only one not in the loop whith this?
And if we're really facing 'global nuclear annihilation' I don't think grownup men running around the bush with plastic compass and god damn bow, roleplaying Metro 2033 are solution to this.
Prepping is an individual solution to the threat of societal collapse. In the grander scheme of things, it can be seen as an anti-solution. It gives some people the idea that they've got an escape hatch. If you think you can run away, you'll be less inclined to fight for a solution that avoids collapse.
Luckily, the article differentiates here and doesn't feature hardcore fatalists only. And in my view, just thinking about what living outside modern society encompasses will actually help people understand what they got. And why they should fight for it.
Personally, I need insulin. So I'm committed anyway. I can't just go hide in a bush for years on-end.
I thought the no appendix requirement was only for doctors going to Antarctica?
There was a Soviet doctor there in the 60's who successfully removed his own appendix, but I think in general that's a situation that you want to avoid.
> In the grander scheme of things, it can be seen as an anti-solution.
Every person who has adequate preparations for themselves and their family is a person who who's allowing societal resources to go to someone else in greater need. It's one less person standing in line for water and food after a disaster.
Far from an anti-solution, it provides distributed herd immunity.
Not disagreeing with that. I'm just worried that the people who build their shelter might do so at the cost of not averting the disaster in the first place.
The people hiding in their shelters will live just a bit longer. If that means they survive: great. But they could also die alone instead of having defeated the danger together.
>In the grander scheme of things, it can be seen as an anti-solution. It gives some people the idea that they've got an escape hatch. If you think you can run away, you'll be less inclined to fight for a solution that avoids collapse.
It comes off like you're saying "well if shit really goes south I'm screwed so these people should be too". A few thousand preppers who are too busy prepping to "fight for a solution" isn't gonna make the difference between shit going south or not.
Not to be an ass but the kind of people I picture saying something like that are stuffy politicians who likes to use phrases like "antisocial behavior", "community norms" and "if you're not part of the solution you're part of the problem" and who is completely out of touch with what shapes the decisions of everyday people.
If someone wants to prep for something that's highly unlikely to happen then I see no problem with that. If anything their prepping stands to be useful in a hurricane Katrina type situation. What's the problem with that?
> It comes off like you're saying "well if shit really goes south I'm screwed so these people should be too"
I think it's more a recognition that we are social creatures, and that the minimum-viable unit of social reproduction is the village cluster, not the lone-wolf individual.
The notion that these folk are going to "survive" in any meaningful sense is a fantasy.
I have no problem with people prepping. I understand and accept the reasons for it. I have a problem with people thinking they can just disengage from society and survive. As a hobby, prepping is fine.
If we all disagree what the solution to societal problems is, it is tempting to think I can have my solution independently of others. With this convenient illusion, it is easier to walk into societal collapse. Just live the sweet life now, and when it hits, I run off.
And hurricane Katrina? You realize that many deaths would have been prevented if the levees had been constructed properly? Sure, in hindsight that is easy to say. But that's exactly the issue here: The prepper mindset does not include collective protection. It doesn't scale.
I would think a few thousand peoples efforts could be better used to help keep society together than to stock food, water, seeds, and tools. Or if they really want to be a net gain for some FEMA scaled disaster, help everyone in their community have food, water, and sanitary supplies stored away.
Wrong forum for that kind of sentiment dude. Hacker news is not overflowing with people who value individual autonomy. Most people here see themselves as Correct, and so would much rather you do as they do than make your own decisions.
It’s about anxiety management, not real preparedness. As far as I can tell, the majority of “preppers” achieve very little other than making themselves feel as though they’ve gained some control over an inherently unpredictable and uncontrollable world. A minority of preppers who form heavily armed communities and dedicate most of their lives to it do probably have an edge, but luck will still play an enormous factor and they’re sacrificing their lives today for an uncertain future.
My favorite though are the billionaires who think that they wouldn’t be the first against the wall if civilization collapsed, and really believe their holes in New Zealand will be more than their graves. Still, if it makes people feel better and they’re unable or unwilling to address the roots of their fear and anxiety, it’s pretty harmless in most cases.
The people in heavily armed communities generally have not studied the history of the overall survival of isolated enclaves though.
At best, they get left alone till they run out of supplies, but most likely they get wiped out (if they try to not be absorbed) by the most successful group that adopts a mobile strategy.
I mean ISIS literally proved this model works for a very long time: advance and expand using the resources in the areas you take over, and pacify local populations with equal parts savagery and the spoils of war.
A sustainable version still looks the same - join the largest mobile group, and rapidly absorb territory and people until you become self-sustaining hopefully. And then defend if the same way - by staying mobile, but and having reinforcements to call upon.
The US adopted maneuver warfare as a tactical doctrine for a reason.
World annhiliation is difficult to assess. Local political disaster .. well, it feels closer than a few years ago. But I don't think it will be the big nuclear one.
Switzerland "preps" on a society-wide scale: every apartment building must have its own nuclear shelter, and the mountains are riddled with more military and civilian shelters and stockpiles. They're completely prepared to blow the bridges and lockdown the country if it's required.
Meanwhile I'm wondering what level of "prepping" is appropriate for Brexit. The government alternates between announcing the issue of commemorative coins and announcing plans to requisition ships to deal with the Channel transport fiasco. I've already experiences not having any fresh food (milk, bread etc) in the shops for 5 days this year - and that was down to two feet of snow.
Individualist survival is always going to be terribly limited, and not possible for vulnerable individuals. The best solution is a society that takes the right threats seriously and looks after its vulnerable.
I'm not a "prepper": I like backpacking; I like gardening; I like shooting (but not hunting, as I'm a vegetarian); I keep a hurricane kit at home with a couple months food and a generator.
This is just enjoying my hobbies combined with good sense preparedness for living in Florida.
As for plastic compasses, they work fine and are hard to break, orienteering is a fun hobby, and bow hunting is a popular sport here.
> “We live in an era that, within 15 minutes’ notice, nuclear weapons could be crossing the continents bringing about great devastation. Yet we deny this, go about our business.
Also every person you pass on the street can end your life in minutes or less with few dollars worth of steel. Yet we go about our business.
That possibility is just the cost of living near people. With nukes "near" means "on the same planet".
And the irony is that though in theory your local n is smaller than that of the entire globe, in reality the number of people who could launch an ICBM is miniscule while, as you point you, you typically are in proximity to quite a few on a given day (even in Australia).
I am completely unprepared for any degree of civilization collapse.
Articles like this, however, make me wonder if there is a strategy that will leave me more prepared than the average person, but not involve devoting my entire life & pool of resources to a bomb shelter in the outback. We insure against other unlikely but catastrophic events through various types of insurance - are there any demi-preppers out there?
I still believe that this is 90% of "preppers". They study it for a week, make some arrangements an then just let it go. Revisit those arrangements once a year or so and you are golden.
Generally you aim at basics.
* About 3 weeks worth of food (2000 kcal/person/day)
* Week of water (gallon/person/day), some basic water filtration (Sawyer squeeze)
* Some preps may be more in line with local climate (backup heating for cold environments)
* Evacuation bags are very common and are also known as BOBs (but most are garbage with lots of guns and no water). Still good to make some with copies of important documents, some water and spare clothes. Just get your old spare bag and unused clothes, no need to overthink it.
* Think about having more first aid material and skills
* Hygiene can be pain once your toilet does not flush anymore and you can't wash your hands, make some arrangements for that too (ie. bucket and plastic bags are way better than nothing)
* I'd also consider tools, such as headlamp per person, other depends on location and needs. Axe can be useful even in city in case of earthquake. Fixed blade knife is probably most versatile tool and Morakniv companion for 15 USD is usually sufficient. But I would suggest some practice here too, you don't want to get cut during temporary service disruption.
Good luck. As German governmental pamphlet states "Germany is ready, when every German is ready". Replace with your own country :).
As a bonus, this gets you half way to a backpacking kit! I've got almost all of this, minus the food and water, always packed and ready in my closet (not for society ending, but as an earthquake kit and convent way to store camping gear). Just add a tent, sleeping bag/pad, and a suitable backpack, and you can head out to the great outdoors!
I don’t care about the overly sensitive downvotes because HN has been turning more into Reddit anyhow but - you left out firearm.
In any “without rule of law” scenario you need a real means of protection. While this may be a shocker to some people if you try and fight with a knife, even if you have edged weapons training, there is a great chance you are going to bleed as well.
I hope people who have had the state tell them they don’t need a firearm never have to figure out that should have been their own choice to make.
And this is the problem with preppers in general. I don't know if it's too much Walking Dead or just a mindset they have to start with, but as someone else pointed out they seem to be far more obsessed with guns than with clean water, sanitation and heating.
Guns aren't very common in my country so I'm not worried about gun-toting locals rampaging around. Sure, a few might raid a military base or a farmer's shotgun cabinet, but statistically I think my family would be under far more threat from hypothermia, cholera or an infected scratch.
No, this is the problem with media representations of preppers. It's a massive overgeneralization to say that preppers "seem to be far more obsessed with guns than with clean water, sanitation, and heating."
With that said, the reality is that clean water, sanitation, and heating are pretty darn boring. It's like prepping 101 to have some available water, a shovel, and a barbecue or a fireplace or a basement to keep warm. If preppers do seem to you (apart from media misrepresentation) to focus more on guns, it's likely because they're long past having basics like food and water taken care of, and guns are more varied than any of the other basic needs.
Every place is different, and maybe guns are less important in your country, but they're very important during collapses in America, whether we want the world to be that way or not. Look back on the social breakdowns in America over the past--the LA riots come to mind--and look at how locals used guns to defend their stores and homes from looting. And those looters were just rioting; they weren't hungry or fighting for survival.
I'll grant you that the media representations are bad. I've never met a real live prepper, only ever seen them on TV, and I guess the ones they interview on TV are the ones who make the best TV.
You're right the basics are boring, but it's the basics you'll spend 24/7 trying to obtain long after your weapons and ammo have gone rusty. And if you think you'll be making your own ammo, I'd say no-one at all will have the luxury of that kind of engineering time when they're trying to get the ground to grow enough food to eat.
"Guns and weapons helped no one directly and were even of little to no use in the defense of Sarajevo, since they were toys compared to the shells, bombs and high-powered armaments of the attacking forces."
There's a broad category of social turmoil that is life threatening but not quite the magnitude of "professional military starts attacking citizens." Say bands of political extremists of whatever flavor start attacking towns, or other smaller-scale (in comparison to outright civil war) acts of violence erupt. I don't dispute your anecdotes from the Balkans, but using it as blanket proof to say that firearms won't ever be of benefit in times of civil unrest is not effective.
You are right, but that's not really an apocalypse but a localised civil war. Admittedly, it would be good to be prepared for that, but I think leaving the area altogether would be a more optimal solution than grabbing weapons.
Sure, but leaving the area means abandoning a place of shelter, community, and potentially a decent chunk of supplies. I agree, plenty of disasters wouldn't warrant use of firearms, but having them and not needing them is considerably better than needing them and not having them. Seems like one is strictly better than the other. I suppose possession of unnecessary firarms could risk having them stolen or otherwise ending up in the hands of people doing harm - but seeing as 30-40% of US households possess firearms, this is a moot point.
Well, my 3 weeks of food were not aimed at this "End of world as we know it" scenario and original question was not aimed at one. Just at being better prepared than average.
Guns really are also not "get and forget" kind of think. They can help or get you killed.
They might get you killed by mismanaging them (basically you shoot yourself by accident), by making you overconfident and not escaping in time, by making you a target "to get your guns", by making you suspicious (imagine checkpoints in now occupied parts of Ukraine) and getting killed in interrogation.
Guns are not all advantages in real world situation.
>Guns are not all advantages in real world situation.
I wish I could explain how ridiculous it is to remove an option from yourself before a situation arises... but if you don’t already understand that, how could I explain it?
I also think having a fire extinguisher and jumper cables / jump box is a disadvantage in your bizarro scenario where “you might shoot yourself” comes up.
It’s a little funny low obviously little experience you have with firearms - but absolutely trust agents of your government who have maybe 2-3 weeks training once during accedemy with them. Those agents are the ones not coming to help though.
That’s the thing though, it doesn’t matter how much stuff you have, without a way to keep it you won’t keep it.
In a without rule of law scenario there is no one coming to help, say to protect you from someone bigger stronger faster or more clever than you that did not have a prepper foresight.
Having access to a ranged weapon is defenitely a plus. Even if complete absence of law and order is a somewhat unlikely scenario, a ranged weapon will also make things like hunting for food easier.
In many places, there are quite heavy restrictions on firearms, and obtaining one without breaking the law might simply not be legal for everyone. Most such countries don't outlaw the use of bows and arrows though...
Wasn't the US right to bear arms mainly aimed to overthrow a government in case it sucks? Well now's the chance.
But for the US, I agree, I don't trust Americans to be civilized when the shit hits the fan - it's every man for himself there. Which is why the country is failing.
Stack your pantry deeper than average -- buy the same food you always buy, but keep 2-3x as much shelf-stable food on hand. Pasta, rice, flour, peanut butter, tuna, shortening, etc. all keep for long enough without any serious degradation in quality. Fill a water barrel[0] and put it in the back of a storage closet. Grab a Sawyer filter[1] in case that's not enough. Get a simple pump shotgun[2] and a 100 rounds; practice with 50 and save the other 50 in case you need to defend your home.
Congratulations, you've bought insurance for the medium-term societal collapse for about $600 or so.
Biggest addition I can make, as someone who has to prep for hurricane season every year:
If you don't have a filter -- and even if you do, depending on what your water sources are -- be aware of how much water your planned foodstuffs will consume. Stuff like dried pasta and flour holds very well, but also consumes a pretty large amount of water to get to a usable state. Canned beans and vegetables and such come with their own water in the package, so they don't use your stores.
EDIT: Don't forget that energy will also be constrained, not just water! Presoak your dried beans and pasta to drastically reduce the amount of energy necessary to cook them.
Start with a realistic but not "end times" scenario: something like an extended power outage (2-6 weeks). Be ready to take care of yourself and people in your household. If you've got any leftover time/energy/skills/resources, organize with your neighbors. Are there any medical professionals in your neighborhood? How about people with useful skills for rebuilding (ham radio operators, electricians, civil engineers, etc.)? Look for CERT programs in your area, they're a good start.
Starting out with preparing for the the more likely scenarios is definitely easier (and most likely more effective) than preparing for Illumunati death squads chasing survivors amongst the zombie hordes in a nuclear wasteland.
Personally, I find it very likely that there will be some kind of short-term (less than 30 days) disruption here, within the next ten years. I live on the countryside and in the north so it's really just a matter of time before the climate changes screws up the weather to such an extent that we get snowed in. Likewise, it's not really that far fetched to expect an extended power outage or flooding.
Medium to long-term disruptions are much less likely (although still possible), but in those cases it's much more important to make sure one's local community can co-operate to make sure actual food production and maintenance of critical infrastructure is handled.
Once that part is handled, prepping for nuclear war, uprisings, alien invasions, zombie apocalypses and so on will be easier (as the basics are covered) and quite a fun hobby. It will also be useful as it will keep skills, that would otherwise be lost to time, alive and well.
I have family that are 'preppers' but they aren't so much anti-government wacko's as they are government employees in the PNW that have seen the reports of what happens if 'the big one' comes (the Cascadia subduction zone)and how many bridges/airports will collapse. My little county did a study, and found they would become a dozen 'islands' because of how many bridges over rivers/large streams would collapse.
I keep about two weeks worth of supplies (food, water, wool blankets, etc) around, because its going to take a long time for federal assistance to arrive.
You may be able to 'soft prep' by just laying out and running through a basic plan. Where you would go if shit hit the fan, who you would contact, how you would contact them with ISPs/cell towers out, where you would get clean water, how you would get food, etc.
That way you're more prepared than 95% of people if something catastrophic were to go down, but you've only spent a weekend's worth of time and $20 on a pack of walkie-talkies. There seem to be diminishing returns where you're giving up current quality of life/free time for increasingly smaller 'preparedness' value.
The answer to every question regarding "where would you go" is "nowhere, unless there's imminent localized danger".
There's a reason most state-level disaster relief advice starts with "stay in your homes" unless there's actual flood waters rising or something - because masses of people suddenly moving about is a pretty good way to create a whole bunch of disruption and disaster.
If you have enough water/food in your house for you and your family/roommates for 7 days you will be more prepared than most. That would cost you about $25-$50 in water jugs and another $50 in meal bars or something similar.
If things go wrong you will be far more likely to get by if people know you, like you and are prepared to look out for you or throw you a bone. Your neighbours probably won't look after you unless you are an exceptional person, but they may well feed your family once or twice, help you board up or fix a roof (on the tacit understanding that you will do the same for them) or trust you more than the scary bunch in pickup trucks.
Really - social ties would count more than anything. Collective action is much more potent than machine guns.
There are little things that everyone should do. If you live in a place where an earthquake may disrupt tap water, keep some water in your house. If you live in a very hot place, keep some water in your car. If you live in a place where it gets very cold, keep some blankets in your car. Have some flashlights and a battery powered radio, a fire extinguisher and a first aid kit. You don't have to be planning for the end of the world for that to make sense.
A non-hardcore checklist would look pretty similar to a camping checklist. I have a storage bin with this stuff that I can throw into my truck and head to the country side.
- [ ] water: a LifeStraw or some kind of filtration system and a couple storage containers (maybe 2 7-gallon containers)
- [ ] food: dried fruits, beans, rice, whatever other dry food you want to pack. if you keep it in a container in your pantry you can just eat it whenever and try to keep it replenished
- [ ] shelter: a tent
- [ ] tools: fixed blade knife, solar flash-light/lantern, fire starter, shovel, axe, rope, tarp, compass, whatever you want to grab from REI or Home Depot.
- [ ] first aid: they sell kits at REI or you can assemble your own
Keep these things in a reliable place, maybe a tote in the garage; and keep your car in good shape (gassed up, tires are good, have a flat tire kit, jumper cables, maybe a spare battery, spare gas); and you'll be pretty reasonably prepared.
Bingo. I would be more confident and useful with a loincloth and a small knife than most of my weekend roleplayer 4x4 buddies with their jeeps loaded out with full survival kit. Watched a guy spend 2 hours trying to light wet kindling with some fancy flint thing, I used a bic. Most of the outdoors industry is all image now, decent equipment is inexpensive, so its 'lifestle marketing driven' now. Preppers included.
> Articles like this, however, make me wonder if there is a strategy that will leave me more prepared than the average person
Just buy some canned food(that you like) and few packs of bottled water. You're now more prepared than 90% of people.
If you expect to evacuate from a local event, make some backpacking gear fitted with necessities and important stuff you need - tools,drugs/first-aid, documents,high-density foods. Like preparing an unexpected camping trip.
Bomb shelters and bunkers are for truly paranoid expecting doomsday scenarios occurring right on top on them, but basic preparedness is not particularly costly, unless you hoard tons of supplies that you can't use.
The irony of this is that what I have seen from modern societies in collapse* is that people band together more with their neighbors or tribe and there is less place for individuals. So maybe it is not going to be you running around in the woods with a bow, but instead a big group from a nearby camp (or a wandering tribe) dragging you out of the woods to pump water or prepare food. Collapse may be disappointing for prepers.
* I am thinking Katrina, Iraq, Syria-- modern places where things have really fallen apart.
Well, there is some sense to this. Supposing TSHTF event happens and it is a nuclear war, there is a good chance that Western Australia will be passed over in everyone's haste to kill off more threatening enemy targets first.
"He acknowledges there might be stigma attached to the word 'prepper' but stresses it is just about being prepared – whether that is for the armageddon or just for a flat tyre is up to the individual."
In the US, at least, I recall the term 'prepper' coming along relatively recently, as a softer, more friendly-sounding replacement for the previous term, "survivalist," which had acquired a connotation of "irrational, paranoid gun hoarder type."
Is this a case of the "euphamism treadmill" in action?
I guess one should reserve whatever connotation that comes with the word "prepper" until after hearing about the event for which this person is preparing. Preparing for many natural disasters (earthquake, tornado, hurricane) is very sensible for people who live in said areas. Some man made situations (infrastructure failures, fires, etc.) as well.
I don't know if it's a case of euphemism treadmill. The older term, "survivalist" doesn't seem to have the same negative connotation (but does have the different connotation of focusing more on survival in nature rather than survivng disasters in society).
The nice thing about urban preppers is that's the place to go in a doomsday. They have a ready supply of water, canned goods, and ammo.
I am sure some preppers will in fact be ready, guns loaded, and should not be approached. These are also likely to be the ones avoiding urban areas anyway. But the ones I know (fortunately none of whom read HN AFAIK) well enough to know their prep...are unlikely to actually have their guns readily available.
What's more, how are they going to make it out of the city on clogged highways? Especially when the ICBMs are already airborne?
I live in the country already. We have chickens, and a well. We won't get murdered in the urban panic. We will probably last a few months... and then die of disease or starvation like the rest.
I used to live in the country, and had to re-assess my assumptions when we had a several day power outage due to a blizzard. We had propane at the old farmhouse, but with no power to run the furnace/blower, I could only run the range (and a small portable propane heater with some spare tanks). There was no power for the well either. After that, every time the power would go out, Wife or I would immediately fill up the bathtub with all the water that was in the pressure tanks. We looked into solar, but the power spikes needed to start a well pump (or furnace fan) can be pretty high, and need quite a bit of amperage to get going.
A government report estimated 90% die off after 1 year if the lights go out due to solar flare or EMP. You can get a basic 1 year supply of food that will last 20 years in cool storage for under $1000 shipped. That is 3 months for a family of 4, cheap insurance and peace of mind.
To each his own. Just because someone doesn't believe in guns or defending their own property doesn't mean it isn't prudent to have a small emergency stash of food.
But also, just because some people don't believe in guns, doesn't mean we should avoid mentioning it. Defense is still an important part of preparation, and guns are the best tools to accomplish that. If someone wants to reject that form of defense on philosophical grounds, they're welcome to, but it's still worth mentioning them as resources for people who may not have such fixed philosophies.
That's true. I'm only addressing the proposed scenario - projected 90% die-off following a total collapse of modern civilization. At this point you'll have to deal with large amount of desperate, starving people radiating away from cities and towards any and all known farms, warehouses, and food/water sources. But having a food stash is a really good idea anyway, because if a disruption is only temporary (say, a week or a month), it may be a difference between living and dying (or not wanting to live with yourself anymore).
So you get to live 3 months more to admire how effed you are and then die. Not sure if it's best way to spend 1000 bucks. Unless you count entertainment value of getting and feeling prepared.
There are a number of reasonable scenarios where the worst is over after a few weeks. Earth quakes, solar storms, normal storms... Having a stash of food and water is not completely nuts.
There are also scenarios where your coin collection might save your life. Collecting coins is also not completely nuts, but the fun of it is nearly all of the value of both hobbies.
The fun of picking, buying, storing, so many fun little decisions to make and so, so many scenarios you can occupy your head with till you die or get bored.
> As global anxiety takes hold, an increasing number of people are preparing for the worst-case scenario
Am I the only one not in the loop whith this?
And if we're really facing 'global nuclear annihilation' I don't think grownup men running around the bush with plastic compass and god damn bow, roleplaying Metro 2033 are solution to this.