The chart is taken from this 2017 article: Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?:
> "While some models projected less warming than we’ve experienced and some projected more, all showed surface temperature increases between 1970 and 2016 that were not too far off from what actually occurred, particularly when differences in assumed future emissions are taken into account."
Thanks, but the animation is unfortunate, because the later predictions are compared to shorter periods and make predictions about the past (so most likely they were fitted against them). Of course it looks like a good match. At least they are honest enough to put a dashed line.
In general the climate science has been very sloppy so they lost a lot of trust. This starts with the name greenhouse effect that describes something different from the main effect in a greenhouse (warm air cannot escape vs reflected radiation). And goes on with melting glaciers in the Himalayas in the next 30 years. Climate gate didn’t increase trust either.
Of course this doesn’t prove that climate scientists are wrong. But they appear more confident than they should.
Climate model predictions of global warming have generally been fairly consistent in projecting future warming, as shown in this animated chart:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/
The chart is taken from this 2017 article: Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?:
> "While some models projected less warming than we’ve experienced and some projected more, all showed surface temperature increases between 1970 and 2016 that were not too far off from what actually occurred, particularly when differences in assumed future emissions are taken into account."
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m...