> In my estimation there is a 20–30% chance we could have “an event” in the near term (the next two years), and since there is never a bad time to make long-term plans you should read this email twice, and discuss it with your senior team.
That corresponds to a 50-65% chance of an event in 6-8 years. That's about the average length of the business cycle. I too am willing to bet that are better than even odds of an "event" in the next 6 years.
For a more recent warning, see https://medium.com/@jason/this-is-your-captain-speaking-im-t...