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Thanks for questioning my knowledge. Let me return the compliment. I don't think you are aware of the fact that a complex dynamical system (the economy) is deterministic. The randomness implied by stochastic models does not exist in reality. Complex dynamics looks similar but is a different animal altogether. Attempts to build global predictive models are futile in principle and can be compared to attempts to build a model that predicts the weather a month from now.

Economics needs a philosophical paradigm shift, and of course it is happening (slowly, and Santa Fe Institute is the place to watch), but is it not what you find in Samuelson books and in the mainstream academia. That is the point I am making.



I know a fair amount about dynamical systems. As for whether the economy is deterministic at the most fundamental level, I suppose that really depends on your interpretation of quantum mechanics.

Concerning weather prediction, that's my point. Economics is as much of a science as meteorology is. Economics and meteorology will never achieve the level of simplicity and accuracy that fundamental physics does. Doesn't make them unscientific.




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