In 25 years we can look back who has had a greater impact on society - the people awarded a McArthur grant or the people awarded an Emergent Ventures grant. My money would be on Phil Baran and Carolyn Bertozzi, not Jordan Peterson and Nakamoto Satoshi. Nota bene: John McArthur was a financier himself.
Both of the chemists you mention were already wildly professionally successful before they got their MacArthur Grant. The MacArthur Grant was not encouraging success, it was rewarding it.
If they’re typical recipients of MacArthur Grants then the Emergent Ventures grantees will definitely look worse on average. Some of them will try and fail. None of the MacArthur grant awards are going to fail and drop into obscurity. They’ve all already reached some level of success.
Whatever about Peterson Satoshi Nakamoto developed a financial technology on a par with at least international wire transfers and possibly fiat money. Even if BitCoin as such is insecure and collapses, worthless some altcoun is going to be traded in 100 years. The technology is a big deal.
