I didn't mean to suggest that I'll wait for this kind of study to come out before deciding which path to take, just that very few data points aren't enough to make a strong case that "avoid VC money" is the best advice to give entrepreneurs. Both independent and VC funded ventures have had many successes and failures, and you need to look at more than just a few cases to get a sense of the right way to go.
IMO, if you think you have an idea for a Basecamp-like app that you can develop quickly with no outside investment and sell enough subscriptions to make it self sustaining, go for it. It's probably a safer strategy than betting on a 100mil exit in VC funded company. However, it's also possible that 37signals has picked a low-hanging fruit the likes of which aren't always easy to find and that the "avoid VC money" advice doesn't work for companies that need a longer runway to profitability.
IMO, if you think you have an idea for a Basecamp-like app that you can develop quickly with no outside investment and sell enough subscriptions to make it self sustaining, go for it. It's probably a safer strategy than betting on a 100mil exit in VC funded company. However, it's also possible that 37signals has picked a low-hanging fruit the likes of which aren't always easy to find and that the "avoid VC money" advice doesn't work for companies that need a longer runway to profitability.