It's not just understanding the packages. When I upgraded from 16.04LTS to 17.10 I had to relearn how to compile the kernel because my laptop would no longer boot.
Wasn't that hard to do in the end but it's not something I've done for many, many years and doesn't fill me with confidence.
It does have the overhead of requiring you actually understand (or know how to google) your system/packages that you use though.