>If you are thinking that online sales will eclipse retail in the near future (even groceries: http://www.nielsen.com/tz/en/insights/news/2017/grocery-e-co...), and that this is an inflection point in buyer behavior, then Walmart is a leader who will run out of gas soon, and Amazon is just hitting their stride.
That is not likely. The report you are citing does not support the projection you are making.
>then Walmart is a leader who will run out of gas soon, and Amazon is just hitting their stride.
This kind of fantasy is almost ubiquitous among people who write articles about tech-y business or who run non-ecommerce internet businesses. However it is not supported by actual breakdown of online vs. physical retail sales.
You can't necessarily draw a straight line based on the growth or even compare the US directly to China which has a much greater proportion of online vs. retail sales. There are various complications across many different product types that make it challenging for pure online mail order to completely displace physical retail.
The complete lockstep faith in this 'inflection point' stuff that I have seen and heard from people leads me to be extra-skeptical of it. Just because Marc Andreessen said it doesn't make it so.
Pretty much every dollar my household brings in comes directly or indirectly from ecommerce. I am very personally invested in the continued growth of ecommerce. But I am also quite aware of the many difficulties and risks that the industry faces.
>If you are thinking that online sales will eclipse retail in the near future (even groceries: http://www.nielsen.com/tz/en/insights/news/2017/grocery-e-co...), and that this is an inflection point in buyer behavior, then Walmart is a leader who will run out of gas soon, and Amazon is just hitting their stride.
That is not likely. The report you are citing does not support the projection you are making.
>then Walmart is a leader who will run out of gas soon, and Amazon is just hitting their stride.
This kind of fantasy is almost ubiquitous among people who write articles about tech-y business or who run non-ecommerce internet businesses. However it is not supported by actual breakdown of online vs. physical retail sales.
See Nielson on what that breakdown is: http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2017/as-us-retail...
You can't necessarily draw a straight line based on the growth or even compare the US directly to China which has a much greater proportion of online vs. retail sales. There are various complications across many different product types that make it challenging for pure online mail order to completely displace physical retail.
The complete lockstep faith in this 'inflection point' stuff that I have seen and heard from people leads me to be extra-skeptical of it. Just because Marc Andreessen said it doesn't make it so.
Pretty much every dollar my household brings in comes directly or indirectly from ecommerce. I am very personally invested in the continued growth of ecommerce. But I am also quite aware of the many difficulties and risks that the industry faces.