> Likelihood ratios of 84–154 would not qualify as a positive identification by the criteria of modern forensic practice, where likelihood ratios are often millions or more. They do qualify as what is often called the preponderance of the evidence, that is, it is more likely than not the Nikumaroro bones were (or are, if they still exist) those of Amelia Earhart. If the bones do not belong to Amelia Earhart, then they are from someone very similar to her. And, as we have seen, a random individual has a very low probability of possessing that degree of similarity.
PS: The actual journal article is actually very readable and very interesting. Perhaps the mods can change the link to the actual journal article?
> The bones have unfortunately since been lost, and so cannot be analysed. But the research team used historical photographs, as well as her pilot's and driver's licences, to determine that her body proportions matched the skeletal remains.
They don't even have the bones to analyse themselves? That doesn't fill me with confidence.
The don't have the bones themselves, but they have the original investigator's measurements of the bones.
I would be less concerned about the accuracy of those measurements, and more concerted about the accuracy of using 'A "historical seamstress" was also consulted to analyse her clothing' to estimate bone length in addition to 'historical photographs, as well as her pilot's and driver's licences,'
> Likelihood ratios of 84–154 would not qualify as a positive identification by the criteria of modern forensic practice, where likelihood ratios are often millions or more. They do qualify as what is often called the preponderance of the evidence, that is, it is more likely than not the Nikumaroro bones were (or are, if they still exist) those of Amelia Earhart. If the bones do not belong to Amelia Earhart, then they are from someone very similar to her. And, as we have seen, a random individual has a very low probability of possessing that degree of similarity.
PS: The actual journal article is actually very readable and very interesting. Perhaps the mods can change the link to the actual journal article?