Starting a Business in a Shrinking Industry

[hunterjrj]

An idea has come to me about how to solve a major problem in an industry that is currently struggling to adjust to its shrinking revenue (print media). I have 7 years of experience in this industry, though I left it last year to find another industry that is not shrinking as fast as this one is. I have kept up with the trends in that industry and believe that the idea can help businesses in this industry tremendously.

I am curious if anyone has ever entered an industry that is struggling to adjust to an entirely new landscape, as print media currently is. Is the risk too large? Can a new business become successful? I certainly believe it can if it solves a major hurdle that the industry is facing, however I am interested in opinions from people who may be in the industry, or those have attempted to make a go of it in an industry in crisis.

[gm]

We cannot advise you without knowing more details, but here are some generalities:

- Yes, print media is undergoing a transformation (going from steakhouse to McDonald's, I'd call it), but what matters here is what role your product/service plays in the before/after. Is it going to be more useul when the transformation is complete? Is your market broadening or closing? The dangerous/risky thing would be if your product actually aims to STEM the industry, to keep it from undergoing the change. There are huge forces at play here, HUGE money at work (and you will only have success if you take into account the priorities/incentives of everyone at play). If you aim to stem the flow of the Mississippi, a plain old shovel ain't gonna do it.

- Have you looked at the international market for your product/service?

- Have you looked at all segments of the industry? Are you only looking at the woes at the L.A. Times and not taking a look at the community papers?

That's pretty much all I can think of without knowing more. Look at all angles. You ask about risk, but risk is what's left when you exhaust the possibilities.

The words you use: "industry in crisis"... They stink of opportunity. Be glad you can do something in an industry in crisis. There's nothing worse than trying to break into an industry that has everything going perfectly, there's little opportunity in that.

[hunterjrj → gm]

Thank you for the very helpful post.

- The market for this product is broadening. More and more newspapers are considering the approach that this solution facilitates. The solution certainly does not stem the change, it would actually assist greatly in accelerating it and some of the challenges that they are facing would be greatly reduced.

- I have not investigated the market outside of North America for this solution, however it would be a universal solution, as the problem applies to any print media that sells ad space.

- I've taken a broad view of the industry within North America. The problem isn't specific to one particular newspaper, the cost cutting measures that have been taken that have created the need for this solution have happened in Ohio, California, Florida, Texas... BIG newspapers. I'm sure I could name a paper in every state who has considered the approach that this solution facilitates. As for the community newspapers... Well, the solution applies to them also. The beauty of this solution is that it scales. The LA Times could use it and a tiny community paper like the Southampton Press could make use of it, if they chose to take the approach that would call for it.

Thanks again.

[gm → hunterjrj]

What are you waiting for then? If the opportunity is there and the timing is right, what are you doing here asking about it?

Tick, tock, tick, tock... Time does not wait.

Maybe you have some hesitation because there are some things you do not know how to tackle, or maybe there is something else holding you back.

Put a team togther. Put a plan together. Get going. Action is what matters.

[bmaier]

"...try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

[kansando]

If you help them save money in a direct demonstrable way in a short period of time, you could have a shot. A good example is ITA software that powers the online pricing engines for a number of airlines as well as travel sites. They have grown nicely while the industry itself has been in turmoil.

[skmurphy]

It can be easier to get firms to change when they can see the handwriting on the wall than when a threat is a distant glimmer on the horizon. Paradoxically, it may be easier to get print media to try new things today than two or three years ago. You need to pay close attention to your payback period and shorten that as much as possible to minimize the risk of experimentation. You need a proof point or prototype example: can you go back to a former employer and get them to try out your idea?

[pmorici]

Does your solution address a problem that is causing the contraction of the industry?

[ivrokv]

if you believe in your idea, just do it. Why distract yourself by asking opinions.