In a sense, it[programming] still is[artisanal], and always will be.
Certainly, programs will continue to be made essentially "by hand". But as Nelson goes on in the discussion, he expands his statement to mean something universe programming literacy, "citizen programmers" produce programs for each other. Despite some stabs at putting programming in elementary school curriculum, we're fairly far from that.
I understand what you are getting at, but aren't we some way towards the "citizen programmer", especially when you consider the number of private individuals contributing to open source software. I would also class many of the independent phone developers as citizen programmers. I would say that we have never had more independent developers writing software that other individuals want.
Certainly, programs will continue to be made essentially "by hand". But as Nelson goes on in the discussion, he expands his statement to mean something universe programming literacy, "citizen programmers" produce programs for each other. Despite some stabs at putting programming in elementary school curriculum, we're fairly far from that.