One ad in isolation doesn't mean much. It's the whole picture. Bubbles have a certain look and feel.
I am 39 which is like 80 in programmer years. I've seen a lot of fads and bubbles in my lifetime. The downside of being older is that you're not quite able (for many reasons including lifestyle and family) to work like a 20 year old, but the upside is that you've had a chance to develop a ton of meta-meta pattern recognition. Your neural net has accumulated a lot of training data.
Like I said I've lived through two mega-bubbles: dot.com and housing. This looks exactly like the tail end of those.
Deja moo, man. Deja moo.
If I held a lot of Bitcoin I would start dollar cost averaging out, like yesterday. It's better to miss out on some of the last waves in a bubble than to get caught in the monster riptide when the crash comes.
Edit: if you do get caught in the crash, do this:
If you can't convert to USD/EUR/etc., take your Bitcoin or whatevercoin and transfer it out of an exchange and into a private wallet that you control. If the transaction fees are high just eat it. Better to get it out of an exchange that could collapse at any second. Then just sit on it. Be prepared to sit on it for years. It may eventually regain at least some of its former value. In the meantime buy popcorn and watch the show.
I agree with many of your points. There is certainly a bubble feel around this. But I don't think that shrugging away all cryptocurrencies/tokens as a dangerous mistake is the answer. Nor is waiting for the big crash (time in the market > timing the market).
There will be many losing cryptocurrencies after the bubble bursts, but some will survive and thrive.
This is sensible advice except for the sit on it part. I would rather convert it like yesterday into anything that is useful for storing value like gold, silver, jewelery, collector's items etc. Worth more than hashes on a digital wallet on some bit rotting flash drive. Of course, to do that you must first take it out of the exchange.
I didn't intend to be reverse-age-ist. Was just pointing out that bubbles are more obvious if you've seen a few, and I must admit that I assumed the parent to have not seen many since this one is so damn obvious.
One ad in isolation doesn't mean much. It's the whole picture. Bubbles have a certain look and feel.
I am 39 which is like 80 in programmer years. I've seen a lot of fads and bubbles in my lifetime. The downside of being older is that you're not quite able (for many reasons including lifestyle and family) to work like a 20 year old, but the upside is that you've had a chance to develop a ton of meta-meta pattern recognition. Your neural net has accumulated a lot of training data.
Like I said I've lived through two mega-bubbles: dot.com and housing. This looks exactly like the tail end of those.
Deja moo, man. Deja moo.
If I held a lot of Bitcoin I would start dollar cost averaging out, like yesterday. It's better to miss out on some of the last waves in a bubble than to get caught in the monster riptide when the crash comes.
Edit: if you do get caught in the crash, do this:
If you can't convert to USD/EUR/etc., take your Bitcoin or whatevercoin and transfer it out of an exchange and into a private wallet that you control. If the transaction fees are high just eat it. Better to get it out of an exchange that could collapse at any second. Then just sit on it. Be prepared to sit on it for years. It may eventually regain at least some of its former value. In the meantime buy popcorn and watch the show.