"The point of forecasting is not to attempt illusory certainty, but to identify the full range of possible outcomes."
"I will force myself to make a tentative forecast based on the information available, and then systematically tear it apart, using the insights gained to guide my search for further indicators and information. Iterate the process a few times, and it is surprising how quickly one can get to a useful forecast. Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is 'strong opinions, weakly held.'"
"It sensitizes one to the weak signals of changes coming over the horizon and keeps the hapless forecaster from becoming so attached to their model that reality intrudes too late to make a difference."
"The point of forecasting is not to attempt illusory certainty, but to identify the full range of possible outcomes."
"I will force myself to make a tentative forecast based on the information available, and then systematically tear it apart, using the insights gained to guide my search for further indicators and information. Iterate the process a few times, and it is surprising how quickly one can get to a useful forecast. Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is 'strong opinions, weakly held.'"
"It sensitizes one to the weak signals of changes coming over the horizon and keeps the hapless forecaster from becoming so attached to their model that reality intrudes too late to make a difference."