You agree with me, but I don't think you realize it. I absolutely agree that many people with the iPhone 6 and 7 are likely to hold out for the iPhone X, and that is a serious problem for Apple.
The entire existence of the X is predicated on the fact that it's an ultra-premium phone that they can only manufacture in limited quantities — quantities that would not be able to match expected demand for this generation of iPhone. If demand for the iPhone 8 is lagging and they literally cannot manufacture the iPhone X fast enough (even having shifted production away from the iPhone 8), the iPhone X may end up being a tactical disaster for Apple, even if every single one of them is spoken for the moment it leaves the assembly line.
Apple might only be able to manufacture enough iPhone Xs to satisfy 20% of projected demand for this generation. Shifting production capacity around doesn't help much if their supply of critical components is limited (e.g., OLED displays). If they were expecting the iPhone 8 to satisfy the remaining 80% of demand but half of potential iPhone 8 buyers decide to simply wait it out, this could be an absolutely disastrous year for Apple even if their ASP shoots up by a few hundred dollars.
I understand your point, but I'm not sure Apple ever presumed more iPhone8s would sell over the X.
Rumors are that the early manufacturing issues were around one of the face recognition modules, but those issues have since been fixed. Apple knows supply chain, they know how to get millions of units made, and I think they get it done. I'll make a bold HN prediction ;) and say the iPhone X will be the best selling item over Christmas and the best selling iPhone of all time.
I sincerely hope you're right, even though I fear that I am! We'll likely know in 6 months time.
That said, why do you think they spent so much effort to develop, manufacture, and release the iPhone 8 if they projected that they would be able to ramp up production enough to satisfy demand for the X within a reasonable time-frame Everything I've seen points to the X being their attempt at making a phone that they simply wouldn't be able to manufacture at typical iPhone scale. So if not that, then what was the strategy behind the 8/X split?
Good question. Another part of that question is why still sell the 7 or 6s at all? I think what we are seeing is Apple slowly filling all of the price points. There is a large group of people who want the latest, but also a group who traditionally were priced out of iPhones.
A question I really want answered is what will they call next years phone? Will they have 9 and XI? :P
The entire existence of the X is predicated on the fact that it's an ultra-premium phone that they can only manufacture in limited quantities — quantities that would not be able to match expected demand for this generation of iPhone. If demand for the iPhone 8 is lagging and they literally cannot manufacture the iPhone X fast enough (even having shifted production away from the iPhone 8), the iPhone X may end up being a tactical disaster for Apple, even if every single one of them is spoken for the moment it leaves the assembly line.
Apple might only be able to manufacture enough iPhone Xs to satisfy 20% of projected demand for this generation. Shifting production capacity around doesn't help much if their supply of critical components is limited (e.g., OLED displays). If they were expecting the iPhone 8 to satisfy the remaining 80% of demand but half of potential iPhone 8 buyers decide to simply wait it out, this could be an absolutely disastrous year for Apple even if their ASP shoots up by a few hundred dollars.