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The real opportunity cost is not living somewhere else. Run the math and SF is best avoided.



That's true in the US. In other areas, leaving the city might not be a realistic option.

Consider Hong Kong as an (extreme) example, where leaving the city means emigrating to another country with another language etc. (yes, HK is technically a Special Administrative Region of China, but can be considered standalone in this respect).

The median apartment price/income ratio here is 18, compared to a US average of 3.9 (the highest cities in the linked article are 13) [1].

These ratios also don't consider what you actually get. The average size of new apartments sold this year in HK was 610 square feet at an average price of US$1.8m and one new development offers apartments the size of Tesla Model X for ~US$500,000 [0].

If you want to go larger, the per square foot cost goes up. At the extreme end, consider a 4000 square foot townhouse that costs US$21,190/square foot [2].

A more ridiculous example is perhaps the sale of a car park earlier this year for US$600,000.

For reference, the median household income is ~US$38k. [1]

Unfortunately those with the most housing affordability issues are those that are least capable of leaving.

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-14/you-can-b...

[1] http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

[2]http://time.com/4752342/worlds-most-expensive-house-square-f...


The real problem of HK's home affordability is the land release/auction system. It is a highly corrupted system controlled entirely by the local elites and major real estate developers backed by big banks. They managed to push average joes to the very limit when 90%+ of the land in HK is used for reserves/parks under the name of environmental protection.

What is worse, this cancer got exported to mainland China in the 1990s and it was systematically rolled out for all major cities there. $1.8m buys you an 80sqm new apartment in Shanghai in an below average location, when the median household income in Shanghai is definitely lower than US$20k.

It is lucky to be living in HK as there are still public housing options. In cities like Shanghai and Beijing, using the national household median income figure, a Chinese peasant needs to start saving the deposit from the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) to be able to afford an average apartment there.


Sacrificing parks for more housing just creates more pressure for sacrificing even more parks.


I would really like to see similar graphics for Europe, Asia, Australia, and Canada. I don't know where to get the data though, and I don't think I could make such a beautiful visualisation as he did.


For the data, the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey provides affordability data for many countries and cities:

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

The top 10 least affordable with respect to median price/income ratios:

    China Hong Kong              18.1
    Australia Sydney, NSW,       12.2
    Canada Vancouver, BC         11.8
    N.Z. Auckland                10.0
    U.S. San Jose, CA             9.6
    Australia Melbourne, VIC      9.5
    U.S. Honolulu, HI             9.4
    U.S. Los Angeles, CA          9.3
    U.S. San Francisco, CA        9.2
    U.K. Bournemouth & Dorset     8.9


Wait... Bournemouth and Dorset!?!?


Yep, Sandbanks brings the average up http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Sandbanks.html


"Sandbanks has, by area, the fourth highest land value in the world" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandbanks


Seems like solid evidence that you can't simply "densify" your way out of high prices? Bloomberg says the reason is developers trying to cover the cost of land. Something doesn't add up...


Actually HK has plenty of buildable land in the New Territories and elsewhere, but the real estate tycoons that run the whole show obviously aren't going to allow competition without first getting their cut.


Also, doesn't HK have a policy against tearing down green spaces? Astonishingly, 70% of the dragon islands is forest, the last I read.


Which means that probably ordinary people left Hong Kong and commute to work there each day right? It became like Paris where mostly only upper class lives. Definitely a rent on a minimal $500,000 apartment will also be above median household income.


No, ordinary people live in government subsidized housing (about half the population), or bought their apartment (99%+ of housing are high-rise apartments) in earlier decades when it was a bit more affordable.

For household who already own, their existing apartment also appreciated, so what matters is the cost of trading up. The hardest hit group are younger people between 20 and 35 who are stuck in their parents house for probably forever. 3 generations under 1 roof is pretty common.


Depends of course. Despite the high cost, many live here because their salary is multiple times higher than they could get elsewhere.


It's not just the salary. It's also the opportunities to do things as in for the SF Bay Area we can go to wine country one weekend, go snow boarding another, sail, surf, hike; there's a lot of stuff to do here. I'm sure people can say the same for the NY metro and other similar places.

I've lived in cheaper but boring places. The financial tradeoff is fair.


Vs NYC there's also Tahoe, the ocean is surfable, there are beaches, it doesn't smell like trash everywhere, the climate is less extreme (less hot humid in the summer no snow), more access to fresh local produce more of the year, etc etc. It's not like rent in Manhattan is cheap, and you'd likely make less in NYC vs SF unless you work in finance.


I probably should have been more specific. People like NYC for different reasons, like the nightlife / club scene where the SF Bay Area doesn't compare at all. There's also culture that you wouldn't find outside NYC like the fashion industry and even art. That said NYC isn't for me either but it is for a lot of people, which is why people endure finance to stay there. Since we're on the subject, LA is another comparable place but not similar place. My point is that you can't these qualities in the boonies and that's why it's expensive to live in these places.


> My point is that you can't these qualities in the boonies and that's why it's expensive to live in these places.

But lots of people are plenty happy in the "boonies". They just have different interests, like doing more outdoor-oriented activities like hunting, hiking, fishing, or building their own workshops from scratch. Or maybe they're more cerebral and like the peace and quiet so they can focus on writing.

It's worth pointing out that far more people live outside of San Fransisco and New York (sure, throw in LA and Chicago, too) than inside those metropolitan areas.

Each of those cities is unique in different things. So they are part of the fatter part of a long thin tail. But that's not the same as "everyone wants to live here!"


> But lots of people are plenty happy in the "boonies". They just have different interests

I don't disagree. Different people want different things. I'm just pointing out 1. why people like living in big metros and 2. the flaw of basing where you live entirely on the cost of living and real estate.


>It's not just the salary. It's also the opportunities to do things as in for the SF Bay Area we can go to wine country one weekend, go snow boarding another, sail, surf, hike; there's a lot of stuff to do here.

You can do all of those same things just living an hour east of SF.


True with those examples. I live 20 minutes out of Seattle. I have hundreds of restaurants, every movie in theaters, hundreds of dance clubs/bars/social clubs within a 20 minute drive.

I can't get a well-paying job, or access to any of the above without being close to the city.


Can't you just commute the 20 minutes to a job in the city?


I thought that's what he just said he was doing.


Or rural eastern Washington, I moved to the bay area from there and other than good restaurants you could do pretty much everything else for less money and no traffic.


Doesn't the SF Bay Area include the cities an hour east of SF?


> Doesn't the SF Bay Area include the cities an hour east of SF?

No, an hour east of SF is deep in the Central Valley.


Could be wrong but I feel that's more than an hour east especially when you account for traffic - at least the cities that are actually inexpensive. Dublin, Pleasanton, and Livermore are no longer inexpensive cities with cheap real estate. Neither is Alamo and other nearby cities.

So the problem with living beyond Pleasanton is that you will spend most of your life sitting in traffic. Why do you need to sit in traffic? Because almost all the jobs are in the Bay Area. Maybe that won't be as big of a problem soon though once you have Level 4 autonomous driving. Personally I still wouldn't go for it with that.


Barely and only without traffic. It's over an hour to Tracy now without traffic and that's right on the Western edge of the central valley. Places "deep" in the valley like Stockton out Manteca are even further.




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