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Some lucky landlords are likely trapped.

When the rent went up 6-10 fold, they could refinance and borrow against the new inflated equity to secure more investments. Renting out at a substantially lower value would negatively impact this financing.

It's a better deal for them to sit empty at a potential rent of 35K/mo than it is to lower the rent and have to repay/refinance loans.



It's not about being stuck. If there's a reasonable chance to get multiples of what you can get immediately it's worth it to wait. Commercial real estate leases are generally ten years. Look at the math:

Lease ends Dec. 30, 2016 -> Immediately rent out for $10k/month to a mom and pop -> By Dec 30, 2024 total rent paid = $960,000

vs

Lease ends Dec. 30, 2016 -> Wait two years for an international fashion label that wants a vanity store -> rent out at $35k/month -> By Dec 30, 2024 total rent paid = $2,520,000


Are you sure that's how CRE lending works? It's definitely not how residential investment loans work. There's no mechanism for a lender to periodically check your leases and decide that they're going to call your loan because you're charging less. And if there was, why wouldn't they be terrified that you're charging $0?


I've heard a similar story in Ireland, when the bank had already repossessed a property. If they rented it out, they would have to mark down the asset value on their books. If they left it vacant, well, some vacancy rate is expected, so keep marking it to the last price it rented for.


This was the explanation given to me by a top analyst from a CRE firm.

There can also be tax considerations that offset gains from other properties, further reducing the incentive to rent out.




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