I've been there. I appreciate what youre saying. You sound like an honest logical person. Id love to help you if i can.
For 10 years I was a small gig consultant 5 of which I worked solo. Fixed price contracts. Clients with tight budget. Projects with high technical variety.
People like us our product is our time. Getting things done on time/budget (or not) sometimes yield a significant impact on our reputation. Thats pressure especially when youre working with so many variables!
Everybody in this line of work goes through this on some level. Based in my downvotes above i assume many folks dont like the idea of trying to estimate to high accuracy. Thats their take. Everyone has their own opinion. Heres mine:
Itemize out the work into logical work items. For each item fix the estimate and the level of confidence on your estimate. If the level of confidence is below say 80% then state the unknowns and add estimate an optimistic/pessimistic range for the item instead of a single number.
After going through this exercise bring this to the client. In all my years doing this ive never had a client who didnt appreciate a thoughtful breakdown of the work and it became easy for all parties to appreciate what areas of the project had the greatest unknowns and why. Also the client can either accept the estimate based on the pessimistic high end of the range or we find a cheaper alternative or i scope a proof of concept. Either way the choices are clear to everyone even if the estimates arent entirely clear.
Sorry for the long-winded explanation and thank you for reading. I would summarize by saying an estimation is just that. it is not accurate but the unknowns are clear and the work is carefully considered before beginning in earnest.
For 10 years I was a small gig consultant 5 of which I worked solo. Fixed price contracts. Clients with tight budget. Projects with high technical variety.
People like us our product is our time. Getting things done on time/budget (or not) sometimes yield a significant impact on our reputation. Thats pressure especially when youre working with so many variables!
Everybody in this line of work goes through this on some level. Based in my downvotes above i assume many folks dont like the idea of trying to estimate to high accuracy. Thats their take. Everyone has their own opinion. Heres mine:
Itemize out the work into logical work items. For each item fix the estimate and the level of confidence on your estimate. If the level of confidence is below say 80% then state the unknowns and add estimate an optimistic/pessimistic range for the item instead of a single number.
After going through this exercise bring this to the client. In all my years doing this ive never had a client who didnt appreciate a thoughtful breakdown of the work and it became easy for all parties to appreciate what areas of the project had the greatest unknowns and why. Also the client can either accept the estimate based on the pessimistic high end of the range or we find a cheaper alternative or i scope a proof of concept. Either way the choices are clear to everyone even if the estimates arent entirely clear.
Sorry for the long-winded explanation and thank you for reading. I would summarize by saying an estimation is just that. it is not accurate but the unknowns are clear and the work is carefully considered before beginning in earnest.
Best of luck to you and don't give up