Have you read the article? It's not the pen. It's high quality steel. I think most countries probably still cannot do it now. China just successfully flew a big plane a few days ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919) and could automate package delivery like this https://twitter.com/kerotto/status/851055016928460800 There are many important areas where it has already been the leader of world (high speed trains, consumer software apps, etc)
China has built passenger airlines many times before, none of them have ever taken off in international markets. When the C919 is used regularly outside China I'll take note.
How is China the leader of the world in high speed trains? They're all based off of designs from Japan and Germany.
China is only the leader in consumer software apps inside of China, and only then because it outright bans foreign competition.
The fact is China is the worlds most populous country but leads the world in absolutely nothing. And please be clear - this is not a criticism of the Chinese people - of course they have the capacity. But central planning and top down directives will never lead to world beating results.
The context of this discussion is can china transition to high value manufacturing, and I don't think it can because despite the worlds largest population, it still struggles to produce things smaller countries are capable of.
#1 manufacturer is entirely due to a huge population and low costs - both advantages are disappearing.
What unique way forward does China have? Another 5 year plan?
India has the 2nd largest population. By your reasoning, they should also be huge at manufacturing. It's not just China's population that enabled them to overtake the USA at manufacturing. Average IQ is 105. Underestimate if you'd like. My family on the other hand will continue to do business with them because they have a lot to bring to the table.
India has the 2nd largest population. By your reasoning, they should also be huge at manufacturing. It's not just China's population that enabled them to overtake the USA at manufacturing.
Population and low cost are the two biggest reasons China has overtaken the US. There's nothing miraculous about Chinas position in the global economy - it's a huge country. If anything, it still underperforms. Much smaller nations are producing passenger aircraft and automobiles used all over the world.
Average IQ is 105.
Which just goes to show you the disastrous effects of socialism, even though it's been curtailed. A high IQ nation with no wars - it should by all rights be a first world country like its eastern neighbours, or indeed - like its Special Administrative Regions.
My family on the other hand will continue to do business with them because they have a lot to bring to the table.
Why would my thoughts on the economic outlook huge nation of over a billion affect who I do business with? Why would I assume a Chinese business or individual has nothing to bring to the table? The fact I don't think I'll be taking international flights on a Chinese made jet any time soon doesn't really affect my view of things like business relationships.
You said China is #1 at nothing. It is #1 at one of the most important sectors in the world. So you backpedal and try to explain how they should actually be uber #1 because of population and other factors. Meanwhile, my family have years of experience doing business with China, including being employed by Chinese companies and dealing directly with the Chinese government. Without meaning to be disrespectful or mean, you should really be trying to educate yourself, not educate me. China has plenty of problems. The "problem" of not being able to manufacture their own ballpoint pen was just a matter of pride, not capability. It's not symptomatic of anything.
> Much smaller nations are producing passenger aircraft and automobiles used all over the world.
China is the world's largest auto manufacturer. Vehicles are one of their top 10 exports. Please revisit my point above about educating yourself about what is really happening there.
I don't think I got it wrong. My point was only to correct the original claim that China leads the world in absolutely nothing. If you're not impressed with China being #1 at one of the most important economic sectors in the world, and you want to explain it away, then carry on. I'm not super interested in that convo because I do lots of business with China and already understand the situation intimately and have far better resources than HN comments for learning what's actually happening there. Not meant to be mean spirited, I'm just not interested unless you do business there and have contacts there up to the highest levels of government in which case, let's talk and I might even pay for good info.
Ran Asia for my last 2 startups. I know what I am talking about. I do 120k miles a year from SFO to around Asia. I can read ~1000 Hànzi. My comment was that they are number #1 because of timing and place in their development cycle and it like everything is subject to change. It is really that simple. I wish them all the luck.
Of course it's a fair point to say things will change... I just wouldn't write off their accomplishment of #1 as simply or only timing and place. There are many factors, and it's also accurate to say the Chinese are actually better than the rest of the world at some things.
I think china struggles because it's only semi capitalist and still has too many relics of a planned economy.