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minznerjosh on Feb 8, 2017 | hide | past | favorite



I'll take a stab at a response:

- The argument against H1B isn't an argument against immigration or immigrants, it is an argument against corporate welfare. This pretty much negates all of the points the author makes (We all agree immigrants provide diversity, some are net positives on the economy, sometimes talent doesn't exist in the US, etc)

- H1Bs aren't allowed to start companies, so this point is moot

- It isn't surprising that many companies are founded by immigrants or children of immigrants. The entire nation is made up of immigrants. The same point that could be made is that most rank and file worker drones are immigrants or children of immigrants.

- startups valued at more than 1 billion dollars? OK...

- "Uber, Tesla and Palantir, had created thousands of jobs and added billions of dollars to the American economy" and those dollars in the economy are concentrated in hands of the very wealthy on the backs of immigrants.

- I love Stripe, but I have a hard time believing he couldn't find "engineers and executives" already in the US to "create a novel machine-learning system to detect fraud; and it had to convince regulators and other businesses that it was safe and legal to process payments through Stripe"


> The argument against H1B isn't an argument against immigration or immigrants, it is an argument against corporate welfare.

Which argument against H1Bs are you referring to? Because Steve Bannon's, which may well be the most influential in government policy right now, was embedded against an argument that also specifically called out the overall proportion of immigrants in the US population as a problem. It is, quite directly, an anti-immigrant argument.


Do you have a source for Steve Bannon's argument?



https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bannon-explained-his...

FTA: On a March 2016 episode, Bannon said that restoring sovereignty meant reducing immigration. In his radio shows, he criticized the federal H-1B visa programs that permit U.S. companies to fill technical positions with workers from overseas.

The “progressive plutocrats in Silicon Valley,” Bannon said, want unlimited ability to go around the world and bring people back to the United States. “Engineering schools,” Bannon said, “are all full of people from South Asia, and East Asia. . . . They’ve come in here to take these jobs.” Meanwhile, Bannon said, American students “can’t get engineering degrees; they can’t get into these graduate schools because they are all foreign students. When they come out, they can’t get a job.”

“Don’t we have a problem with legal immigration?” asked Bannon repeatedly.

“Twenty percent of this country is immigrants. Is that not the beating heart of this problem?” he said, meaning the problem of native-born Americans being unable to find jobs and rising wages.

_____

edit:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/2/2/14472404/ste...

A Vox piece provides a more detailed transcript of Bannon's views:

"BANNON: You saw these guest workers. You saw the CIS report yesterday. You saw that, what is it, 61 million? Isn’t the beating heart of this problem, the real beating heart of it, of what we gotta get sorted here, is not illegal immigration? As horrific as that is, and it’s horrific, don’t we have a problem, we’ve looked the other way on this legal immigration that’s kinda overwhelmed the country? When you look and there’s got 61 million, 20 percent of the country, is immigrants — is that not a massive problem? You were with Jeff Sessions for many, many years. Is that not the beating heart of this problem?"


Ugh, thanks.

Beyond the obvious awfulness, the "progressive plutocrats" bit is impressively slimy. I guess he had to name their politics to differentiate them from Trump's record as a plutocrat employing immigrants at (illegally) low wages?


Cited in my other post about it in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13598624


> it is an argument against corporate welfare.

Explain. As I see it, none of these companies could hire enough in the US to exist here at all without H-1Bs. They would have to move operations somewhere else if they couldn't bring people here. I've never worked on a team at Google that was more than a third from the US.

Tech companies already have offices around the world since not everyone wants to or can move here. If there were fewer work visas, they would just hire less in the US and more abroad.

>H1Bs aren't allowed to start companies, so this point is moot

People who started the immigration process on H-1B do. They are one of the only ways to effectively come here. Getting a green card can take 8 years for someone from a large country.


"The argument against H1B isn't an argument against immigration or immigrants..."

Whatever the "arguments" may be for or against, the policies that fall out of those arguments have an impact on immigration and hiring practices.

-- So are you saying we should let H1bs start companies and not be reliant on the job?

-- "It isn't surprising that many companies are founded by immigrants or children of immigrants."

50% of the company is not immigrants. 50%! That number is mind blowing. That is much higher than the country as a whole.

-- "startups valued at more than 1 billion dollars? OK..."

?

-- "those dollars in the economy are concentrated in hands of the very wealthy"

You think immigration is to blame for income inequality?

-- " I have a hard time believing "

This is not an argument. You're just asserting that he is lying without any argument.


> and those dollars in the economy are concentrated in hands of the very wealthy on the backs of immigrants.

You're very obviously wrong. The employees of Tesla and its suppliers will extract the extreme majority of all financial value from the existence of Tesla. If Tesla survives for 20 years, that tally will be in the multiple hundreds of billions. Elon Musk will end up owning a single digit percentage of that value creation. The same is true about nearly all successful corporations. Of all the financial value created by Google over its existence, Larry & Sergey (and the early Google investors, most of whom liquidated not long after the IPO) will end up having owned a tiny sliver of it.

Uber's drivers will extract the extreme majority of all financial value created by Uber. Over a 20 year span, that number will dwarf what Kalanick and Uber's investors extract. Further, Uber riders will derive a similarly extreme financial value over what Kalanick does, through convenience / time saved etc.

Good luck naming a company that isn't true for.


This feels like a straw man, I did not make the argument that founders will retain all of the value. Obvious the economy is complex but corporate profits and executive pay are at all time highs. Employees are capturing less and less of the revenue stream. Now, founders may not retain their ownership but the ownership will remain in the hands of the class of the wealthy.

(I think it is a weak point for me to make, but I'm pretty sure there won't be Uber drivers in 20 years, probably not in 10.)


Fantasy. The vast overwhelming majority of corporation valuation is in stockholders' hands. By what measure can employees be seen to benefit from this? They are given a tiny stream of revenue for their labor. That's it. Explain.


According to the Federal Reserve Bank, total employee compensation in the US in 2016 was $10 trillion. [1]

The market capitalization of listed US companies, according to the World Bank, was $25 trillion. [2]

Assuming average gains of 10% per year in the stock markets, which stockholders would be glad to receive, I think, employees receive 4x as much as stockholders of listed companies.

1: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A033RC1A027NBEA

2: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD?name_desc...


That means for the 1% to own 99% of everything, they must have bled cash from corporations for a generation, holding their wealth in cash, leaving corporate valuation at a symbolic level?


Or that the majority of people spend everything they earn (or more) and never accumulate wealth.


One definition of poverty is, spending a day's pay on a day's food.


I'm pretty sure the argument is that total payroll is way above any dividend payments. It's a good point, but I think it fails to account for the investment of the employees in form of opportunity cost/work.


Oracle


Isn't the solution to H1B abuse to just let people work anywhere they want after being granted the visa? This would then let the market determine the salary for this class of workers, and should put a stop to the abuses by big consulting firms.


I've been annoyed for years now that "H1B reform" is somehow restricted to conservative, anti-immigration positions. The pro-immigration, free-market solution would still address all the issues with contract/consulting abuses.

I'd love to see the H-1B visa cap expanded, I'd just like it to be done alongside a move to let workers actually enter the labor market like citizens. The current "must pay market rates" setup is a bizarre attempt to duplicate market results under a command system, and we see all of the mis-labelling and other abuses we'd expect with that approach.

I did see that as of 2017 there's a brief window to find a new visa'd job after leaving an H-1B position, which is a nice start. But I'd really rather see the thing reformed via something like "he's a skilled labor visa, go for it". Even if employers were still forced to apply for visa slots it'd be progress to say "here are people with visas, here are companies with slots, coordinate however you'd like".


> Isn't the solution to H1B abuse to just let people work anywhere they want after being granted the visa?

The solution to H1B abuse is to abolish the visa category entirely.

The solution to "there is insufficient domestic supply of high-skill labor, and making more foreign workers available for domestic work of this kind would, with appropriate controls, produce a public benefit", if that is really the case, is to design a system with appropriate controls that does that, which probably won't look much like the H-1B program. It'll start with an analysis of the real nature and extent of the shortage, and the nature of the opportunity for public benefit.


I guess you could stop calling it abuse at that point, but h1b participants are coming here for better opportunities which I think will often mean they are willing to work for much less than an American. Not saying whether this is good or bad, but I think this is the real target of the current administration, to make sure Americans are getting these jobs before immigrants.


It's a good thing that programming work is very difficult to ship over, say, the internet to other countries where they'll do it for cheaper, or have friendlier immigration policies (Canada for instance).

Truth be told, I'm actually not that concerned. The pool of good programmers, even worldwide, is not that big, and as a decent programmer, I don't feel threatened by some companies going for the absolute cheapest people they can get. I figure they'll get what they pay for and things will work out in the end.


This is precisely the solution. Maybe some kind of points based system would work too: "do you meet qualifications X, Y, and Z? Ok, great!" - that could even work to limit silly magic numbers of visas, as well.

http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-optimal-number...


Trump's immigration policies are truly abhorrent.

I agree with the article that tech doesn't work like a factory, it's people are not necessarily fungible.

However, attracting the very best people is not how the H1B visa system is being (ab)used at the moment - for example the minimum wage was set back in 1989, and should be more like $130,000 in 2017, given inflation. So much as it pains me to agree on anything with Trump, I do accept the point that it needs a review. And if the terms were set fairly, there's no reason it couldn't be extended to allow many more people to participate.


Now, If we do set the minimum salary at that level SV will be just fine, but what about non-NYC or SV regions, who also have tech companies (believe it or not) and yet much lower income median. We will be embracing newcomers to only come to the coast, which is hardly Trump's point here.


So let's say the minimum is $130k. That means you could hire an American for $90k (or even less depending on experience) and spend $20k training them and still come out ahead. For a lot of jobs that I've seen H1B's doing at the company I work for, you could find someone from the U.S. willing and capable of doing it - they might not be a perfect fit, but $20k worth of on the job training is a lot. I'm talking CRUD apps and basic infrastructure kinds of stuff, and that's what I've seen a lot of H1B's doing.

Now I realize that there are real specialties that you can't train someone for that easily, and if that's the case, then those people should be making a lot of money no matter where they are located.


That is what the program was designed for. I'm not really a fan of mutating legislature for other purposes.

Lower wage, and high wage workers are different and a VISA program designed for one isn't going to necessarily be fair to another.

Currently, employer influence of H1-Bs is high because they can essentially deport you when you get fired and you lose the life you built in the USA. That's not 'fair', but its at least mitigated if (a) you pay a very high wage and (b) the employees are in high demand globally so sending them out of the USA isn't really a downturn in their lives.


I don't think this really gets to the issue. The median one-bedroom apartment in SF has rent 5x the median for all rentals in Indianapolis. Paying $111,000 in the midwest beats $130,000 in the Valley because you'll come out ahead after housing and taxes.

So the problem is that two-fold: hard salary cutoffs translate poorly between locations, and $130k is enough to price out most parts of the country almost entirely.

Raising the salary cut-off to $130k would basically be urban protectionism: you could hire visa workers for well-paid but unexceptional tasks in NYC, SF, and Boston, but only for exceptional expertise everywhere else.


Exactly the point. Let the market set the salary cut offs would be much more logical than just set salary value for the entire country.


> for example the minimum wage was set back in 1989

1998, under the American Competitiveness and Workforce Improvement Act[1]. $60,000 in 1998 would be about $89,000 today, after adjusting for inflation. Trump's initiative is around $40K above that.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Competitiveness_and_W...


> $60,000 in 1998 would be about $89,000 today, after adjusting for inflation.

I have a hard time believing $89k is the equivalent of $60k in 1998. Gas was $1 a gallon, average rent in LA was $900, health insurance was $35 a month, DOW was at 9k.


I used an online calculation service, but it is an average of 2.6% per annum, which seems consistent with what is normally reported. It's also consistent with the previous comment's assertion, as the starting point of 1989 puts it at about $120k. What do you think the inflation rate was through that period instead?


the official inflation rate isn't accurate, as it doesn't take into consideration any of those things you just mentioned.

i'd say $60k 20 years ago is more like $120k today... and that's being generous.


Each and every category, except the stock market which isn't a consumer good, that was mentioned is in fact measured quite carefully by US CPI measurements.

The poster just happened to cherry pick things that have increased faster than inflation: refined petroleum, coastal city housing, and health care.

As an aside, people's perception of health care increases are driven by factors somewhat decoupled from a reasonable measurement of actual cost increases:

- employers have steadily shifted a larger fraction of healthcare premiums onto employees

- older people's healthcare is dramatically more expensive than young people's (actuarially). The fact that everyone alive has aged 20 years means your perception of cost is dominated by the age curve, not the steady-age cost


> employers have steadily shifted a larger fraction of healthcare premiums onto employees

This is true, it's a major reason the public understanding of health care cost growth doesn't mirror health care spending growth. But it's also meaningful, because it defines consumer spending, and it's not usually accounted for.

Healthcare's piece of the CPI basket is ~5%, but for a lot of people the real share has grown rapidly and is ~20%. Which means that using a CPI calculation to scale income is a problem - one of the faster-than-inflation segments has rapidly taken over much of the basket.


I don't think anyone, red or blue or purple, really wants to stop skilled immigrants from coming to America. The debate is around those who are less skilled.


> I don't think anyone, red or blue or purple, really wants to stop skilled immigrants from coming to America.

Lots of people, some of them quite publicly—including Steve Bannon, Trump's Chief Strategist in that latter group—do. Some because they are competition for jobs, some because of general xenophobia, some for other reasons.

Bannon has specifically criticized legal immigration generally, and the "progressive plutocrats of Silicon Valley" and the H1B program and the preponderance of Asians (calling out both South and East) in tech specifically. If you think he's only interested in curbing "less skilled" immigration, you're mistaken.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bannon-explained-his...


They're even looking at cracking down on family visas outside of spouses and kids.


If you are a skilled worker then you should probably think twice about it.


Steve Bannon does.


Source?


http://mcfeely.areavoices.com/2017/02/01/bannon-legal-immigr...

"Isn’t the beating heart of this problem, the real beating heart of it, of what we got to get sorted out here, is not illegal immigration, as horrific as that is and it’s horrific, don’t we have a problem and we’ve looked the other way on this legal immigration..." -- Bannon


Completing the quote:

"... and how it’s overwhelmed the country? When you look and it’s got 61 million, 20 percent of the country is immigrants. Is that not a massive problem?"

I don't know about those numbers, they seem to come from a right-wing think-tank called the Center for Immigration Studies [1], but wasn't Bannon claiming that there are too many immigrants? Which wouldn't be the same as wanting to stop all immigration.

1: http://cis.org/61-Million-Immigrants-and-Their-Young-Childre...



I was hoping for an actual quote from Bannon that supports that claim, instead of an article that admits:

> While Bannon didn’t explicitly say anything against immigrants,

then adds the partisan spin:

> he seemed to hint ...


I was not the OP who you replied to but I assumed that this was what he was referring to.

When asked about students staying back in the country after going to Ivy league schools the quote is

“When two-thirds or three-quarters of the CEOs in Silicon Valley are from South Asia or from Asia, I think . . . ” Bannon said, not finishing the sentence. “A country is more than an economy. We’re a civic society.”

Which implies that he would prefer fewer legal immigrants. The three-quarters figure is of course a gross exagerration.


> Steve Bannon would prefer fewer legal immigrants

I think that's a fair characterization of his position. Fewer.

But I'm asking about a source for the claim "[Steve Bannon] wants to stop skilled immigrants from coming to America".


When he's talking about CEOs of tech companies, "skilled" is assumed.


Skilled is fair, "stop" is what I'm questioning.


See a sibling comments to GP: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13598624


I couldn't find the video, i suppose the soundcloud link on Verge has the audio where he does say we should not keep people who went good American schools.

link : https://soundcloud.com/breitbart/breitbart-news-daily-donald...

The part where he says, "a country is more than a economy, it's also a civic society" in the context that there are more south asian CEO's in silicon valley is terrifying.


Where in the recording is the quote you're talking about?



That's still only those few words from Bannon.

I'd like to hear the quote in context and not speculate or repeat partisan spin based on one sentence he once said.


I'm well aware of trumps desire to crackdown on ILLEGAL immigrants but fail to understand how that's going to affect the normal immigrants that make up Silicon Valley like the Russian and Indian used as examples in the article.

The travel ban was the first thing I've heard from him that was abhorrent and the near universal smack down it's received from every direction gives me hope that Trump will be kept in his place by our established checks and balances.


While the policy rhetoric often focuses on "illegals", the substantive policy from the Republican Party is anti-immigrant, not just anti-illegal-immigrant.

The bill just introduced to cut the number of green cards issued in half, eliminate the diversity lottery, and impose permanent cuts in the number of admitted refugees would be exhibit 1.



> first thing I've heard from him that was abhorrent

Respectfully: you have not been paying close attention.


It's probably for sympathetic reasons. If they can scare or get unaffected immigrants to care, it helps their cause for illegal immigrants.

Basically they're playing up one angle in the hopes it will cause sympathy in others who are not affected. Employers don't want to seem "exclusive" do they have to send out pro forma communications about their inclusiveness and vision of one world even when they are not affected or minimally affected by the bans.

They probably lose more money in the form of lost sales due to export restrictions to other places, but you don't see the dame dire warnings of a threat to viability.


For whatever reason, I think people just don't believe in this argument: that this entrepreneurial skill set is hard to find and that any country would be lucky to attract as much of it as it can.

Part of the reason is that it isn't a context free skill. The athlete analogy is effective here. You know that there are generally good athletes but you don't know which one will be LeBron. And general athletic ability doesn't translate to all sports (witness Jordan playing baseball or golf).

I wish there was a way to convince people who disagree but I really think they think this is just a cover for shipping in low paid workers.


Counterpoint: Tel Aviv has an active tech economy despite a difficult immigration environment. You probably just need first world infrastructure, capital, and low levels of government corruption.


Questions for Valley workers: at what point is enough enough? What will it take to pack it up and leave? Would you consider moving to a different country or returning to a home country? If so, would you continue to work for your current employer, would you look for a job in the local market, or would you found a startup?


I am from India, and am on H-1B.

I had started making plans to leave in late 2014. I convinced myself that if the administration does not do anything to fix green card backlogs by end of that calendar year, I should leave in 2015. Obama's State of the Union address gave new hopes, and I stayed back. The promises made then went through the red tape and USCIS finally published its ruling last November [1]. Unfortunately it did not contain any relief for skilled immigrants stuck in green card backlogs.

My current plan is to wait until end of this calendar year to see how things progress. My green card priority date is April 2012 and, as things stand now, I am still many years away from getting a green card. I will re-evaluate in December. If I don't see this administration making any concrete plans to fix things for the green card backlog, I will leave in 2018.

H.R.392: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2017 [2] gives me hope. It currently has 66 co-sponsors [3] and will hopefully pass.

   H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act replaces the current per-country caps 
   on immigration with a first-come first-served visa system without increasing the total number 
   of available visas. The current system of awarding no more than 7% of available employment-based 
   visas to one country is discriminatory. It ultimately imposes decades-long wait times for people 
   from some countries, creating a backlog of qualified workers. The bill makes no changes to the 
   current law limiting US employers to hire foreign workers except when there are no qualified, 
   willing, able, and available American citizens. 
[1] https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/uscis-publishes-fin...

[2] http://chaffetz.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentI...

[3] https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/392/...


The larger problem is not so much people leaving, but those not coming to the Valley in the first place.


[flagged]


White male here, I've never felt anything but welcome in SV.


Last I checked, white men still bankrolled and ran the show and held most of the tech jobs. What was your experience?


.


Actually I am quite interested in hearing about these "H1b cartels." I feel that this issue is underreported. I am also still quite bitter about the Disney World bait-and-switch, and so I believe this issue deserves more attention.

I work in higher education, and H1bs have been very useful for attracting talented faculty from all over the world. It's neither a perfect nor fundamentally broken system, but to understand how to fix it we should feel free to discuss the flaws and benefits openly.


Loss of privilege feels like oppression, but it isn't.


That's a rather simple-minded response. You define the person as having privilege without knowing said person, and then dehumanize them by saying their situation is irrelevant to justify your offensive attitude.

There are circumstances that the purpose of removal of privileges is specifically for oppression.


You're going to get a hernia if you keep straining that hard.


And then there's the unnecessary personal attack.


It's ridiculous that your previous comment got instantly flagged - apparently some things are not allowed to be a discussion.


Would it be able to work without illegal immigrants?


>To outsiders, this may sound alarmist, and perhaps more than a little self-righteous. It does sound alarmist -- so far the only changes to immigration have been the 7 nation EO and some talk about H1-B.

>They’re looking for the LeBrons and Bradys — the best people in the world

The LeBrons and Bradys of IT would not have any trouble obtaining a work permit or even citizenship from any country in the world -- but given the statistical rarity of superstars (by definition a superstar exists at the top of their profession, even one dominated by highly-skilled people), why would the US need to admit 85K (60K H1-B and 20K master's exempt) immigrants to find them?

Source: https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-worker...


Merit based immigration solves this problem.


- Firstly, there are a bunch of false points here. The HN user ones_and_zeros lives in an alternate reality where H-1B visa holders cannot switch jobs to other companies (that are willing to transfer their H-1B visa). The fact is most tech companies will do a visa transfer. Yet, this facetious lie is oft-repeated on HN, and with attaching terms like "slavery" or "corporate welfare" (which is frankly, offensive).

- Secondly, right now, it is the only pathway for legal immigration. If you don't qualify for the family-based or refugee route, employment-based immigration is the only viable pathway. The amount of hate I see piled on people trying to come here via the employment-based immigration is insane. The thing that infuriates me about the dialogue on H-1B visas is that they are effectively trying to ban skilled immigration, and exclude people like me from coming. I've written about my personal story here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13530886

- Thirdly, the HN user ones_and_zeros is one of the most immigrant-hating users on HN, and is capable of spewing incredibly hateful vitriol against immigrants, see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11313462 To begin with, he believes in a bunch of lies (like the not being able to change jobs part). But even if he got his facts straight, his views are so extreme that only a total and complete ban of all immigrants might satisfy him. It's better not to engage with balls of hatred like the HN user ones_and_zeros. Talk to him enough, and you realize that he just hates every immigrant from the depths of his heart.


I can appreciate why you'd feel strongly about this, but HN's survival depends on us all not personalizing conflicts the way you've done here. This community is divided on all the issues that our surrounding societies are divided about. It wouldn't be reasonable to expect otherwise. That means you're going to get HN users arguing all sides of major issues.

The internet has an evil-genius ability to push all our buttons and drive us all crazy. There often isn't enough information to know for sure what anyone else means or intends, and imagination—drawn from our personal experience, i.e. data about us, not the other—fills in the gaps. This happens especially when strong feelings come up. At that point we start responding not to the real others, whom we have next to no data about, but to evil cartoon characters who vaguely resemble them. We end up feeling surrounded by our own demons.

The way out of this dynamic is for all of us to give one another the benefit of the doubt. It's a big risk, so we all need to be scrupulous about it.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13598500 and marked it off-topic.


Hey man, I know this is probably stressful for you and I don't want to be adding to that for you. I'd be willing to take this offline if you'd like but can you please not call me a liar, immigrant-hater, accuse me of being a ball of hatred or that I hate immigrants from the depths of my heart?

I think you know all that isn't true and I think the readers can see through those accusations and it ultimately devalues your input to the discussion.

(For the record I want an automatic green card for skilled immigrants and a higher bar for what counts as a skilled immigrant. I want a massive expansion of refugee immigration into the US. I want automatic green cards for unskilled immigration where they have created roots in the US)


You expressed in a comment, directed to me, that you wanted people like me kicked out of the United States, and that I was not "entitled" to be here. See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11313462

Honestly, there are no words more hateful than what you said, for an immigrant. I've been in the United States for 10 years now, since I was 17. It feels like home now, and my friends, my community, are all here now. To quote Justice Louis Brandeis, "[deportation] may result also in loss of both property and life; or of all that makes life worth living." You want to destroy my life.

If I'm mistaken about you, and if you truly want to have a constructive private conversation about this; add your email to your profile, and I'll contact you.


[flagged]


You created an account just to say that? I wonder who is really trying to manipulate who.


the_donald is leaking


The immigration-related policies I've heard of were:

* H1B wage increase: I heard a rumor somewhere that they were thinking about raising the minimum wage for either H1B visas or NAFTA jobs to $130k. That shouldn't affect the Googles and Apples of the world at all; if anything, it benefits them because it frees the slots the cheap H1B outsourcing firms are taking up, or removes competition from low-paying startups.

* Increased enforcement against illegal immigration, particularly from Mexico. The "best of the best" that the article claims the tech industry wants should be able to get employees under NAFTA; I know people from Canada who do this already. So any policies targeted at illegal immigration shouldn't be relevant.

* Muslim ban: The green card/visa issues have other arguments against them. One could plausibly say that not honoring those legal documents makes hiring foreigners riskier. As for the actual people themselves though, 6 of those 7 countries we're currently at war with. Maybe not officially or directly, but we've been dropping bombs on those countries for years so they seem a special case. Is the article claiming that Google is expecting top-of-the-line MIT-quality software people from war-torn Syria? I know Israel has some pretty high-quality people; are there other places in the Middle-East(maybe Dubai)?

Is there any specific policy that people are worried will hurt hiring at tech companies, or is it just a general uneasiness about anti-immigration sentiment?


Iran is a huge bed for talent. As the article mentioned, 2 of the 3 people who created Google's Ad Services came from Iran, which came under the recent EO.

But in general it is the rise of anti-immigration sentiment, and the instability with respect to immigration.

There's the case of green cards for Indians and the Chinese. Under the current system, Indians and Chinese workers who start the process of getting a green card today must wait at least 13 years to get it. The prospect of working under a temporary visa for the best years of your life, always under the shadow of a change in administration or policy that uproots you and sends you back to your place of birth is likely to deter a lot of people, and might tempt them to move to Europe or Canada instead.

This is a lose-lose situation because these people don't get to work at the cutting edge of tech, and also the companies that desperately need bright minds lose out on them because they sensibly decided not to risk the US's broken immigration system.

This wasn't always the case, by the way. It's a pretty recent development over the last few years. Since green cards are allotted by place of birth and are a fixed number for every country, it is far easier for a person from Afghanistan to become a permanent resident than for an Indian.


> But in general it is the rise of anti-immigration sentiment, and the instability with respect to immigration.

I guess that makes sense. If you have a low opinion of Trump starting out, then hearing about his upcoming "immigration reform" is like the Pointy-Haired Boss telling you not to worry about that race condition in the billing server because he "fixed" it: It just makes you more worried.

> Under the current system, Indians and Chinese workers who start the process of getting a green card today must wait at least 13 years to get it.

That sounds terrible. Would plans to make the requirements more strict(such as requiring them to work a high-paying job, or sorting them by the salary of the sponsoring employer) help alleviate this, since the queue will be shorter?


>Would plans to make the requirements more strict(such as requiring them to work a high-paying job..) help alleviate this, since the queue will be shorter

If it does, the effects will only be seen in a couple of decades. A lot things can change by then. What would be better would a system where countries get green cards proportional to their population. It makes no sense for Fiji to be awarded the same number as India.


> It makes no sense for Fiji to be awarded the same number as India.

That makes sense, since it's reasonable to assume that high-quality employees are a percentage of the population.

Having a global fixed number of immigrants rather than a per-country pool would also work: If A has a population of 10, B has a population of 20(with similar quality percentage), and the pool is 6, then A gets 1/2 the amount admitted as B. If A's population rises to 20, then they'd get the same amount as B. So it would be proportional to population within the pool.

The only reason to prefer per-country fixed limits is if you wanted diversity. The meaning of "diversity" here is approximated by "variance of sampling immigrants' original home government from a uniform distribution over all governments".


H.R.392: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2017 proposes to eliminate the per-country green card caps for precisely the reasons you mentioned.

There is already a separate 50k green cards set aside for "diversity lottery", so that concern should not affect the desire to remove per-country caps for skilled immigration green cards.


Describing people as "high quality" is part of the problem. Are people from Syria low quality? They are human beings just like us, fleeing a conflict which has destroyed their lives.


"High-quality" is a metric that was already established by the article:

> They’re looking for the LeBrons and Bradys — the best people in the world

"High-quality" means "would pass an interview at a top tech company that your typical US mediocre programmer or CS graduate would fail", or perhaps "could work as a senior executive at a top tech company". The article is presenting an argument that hiring at tech companies would be affected; humanitarian concerns are irrelevant to that argument.


It was abrupt and it came from Trump. Those are the main reasons it's causing such a stir.


It is causing a stir because Permanent Residents (green-card holders) were being told they were no longer welcome into the country. If Permanent Residency is no longer actually permanent, and can be removed on a whim, that is incredibly stirring.


The green-card omission was a mistake, fortunately corrected relatively quickly. The majority of this action, while disheartening and inconvenient for some, is temporary. That which remains and is being declared permanent will not be so. If you haven't learned by now, look closer (and check out Scott Adams recent blog posts). He consistently starts at an extreme and works back to the position he really wants. We are only at the very beginning of this process.


> The green-card omission was a mistake,

Only in that the political backlash was unexpected, forcing the Administration to backpedal.


Especially since it has been done many times before with little noise.


No, it hasn't, which is why most of the times people say this they do it without specific examples, and when they do provide specific examples they are immediately shown to be radically different than what Trump implemented.


>> No, it hasn't...

Yes, it has.




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