It's a little frustrating how this article uses "game theory" as an abstract term that covers pretty much all of de Mesquita's analysis without really explaining how it is used.
I am guessing much of de Mesquita's predictive power is less classic game theory and more of an application of his selectorate theory. [0] To oversimplify leaders stay in power through winning coalitions that are much smaller than the populace as a whole. If you can identify that small group that keeps a leader in power and analyze shifts in support within that group, you can make some interesting "predictions".
That being said BBDM while very smart is also a great marketer and he's wrong sometimes, too. [1]
Reminds me of my mother's preferred online seer. With my skepticism, she told me to go to his site and see what he predicted. "Corruption scandal in Italian soccer league". Come on, man... pick a hard one.
But yeah, there's a lot of selection bias in these things. People remember the predictions that worked, and forget the ones that didn't. The grandaddy of these predictions: how many times has the Second Coming failed to materialise so far?
I am guessing much of de Mesquita's predictive power is less classic game theory and more of an application of his selectorate theory. [0] To oversimplify leaders stay in power through winning coalitions that are much smaller than the populace as a whole. If you can identify that small group that keeps a leader in power and analyze shifts in support within that group, you can make some interesting "predictions".
That being said BBDM while very smart is also a great marketer and he's wrong sometimes, too. [1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selectorate_theory
http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/criticism_of_bueno_d...