Honestly, I am dumbfounded at all the money and publicity that is getting thrown at Diaspora when they haven't really accomplished anything yet.
I don't think OneSocialWeb will succeed, either. What will likely happen is Facebook will adjust their course or a slightly different Facebook clone will come out with sensible customer-focused privacy policies (like Mint or Wesabe had) and ways to get your data out if you want to leave.
Absolutely. I'm actually kind of surprised at how relatively inept Google is in the social networking field. They have Orkut, but it's pretty much a flop in the US. I mention it in another comment, but they have pretty much the perfect platform in Wave for building a serious distributed social network, but instead bill it as being a glorified email replacement. And Buzz? Is it even worth talking about?
The fact that Diaspora have gotten all that attention actually suggests that they have better odds to succeed - the biggest obstacles to a Facebook replacement aren't technical, after all, but social. They're starting by giving themselves a human face, just like MySpace did.
Well, they've proved they understand the marketing part of it :)
Edit: that wasn't meant as snark. Marketing and mindshare are important in launching a new enterprise, especially one that sets out to bust an existing paradigm. The Diaspora team have done an excellent job in presenting their project, and taught me a valuable lesson. In the process, they've also created useful publicity for Kickstarter as a launchpad.
I don't think OneSocialWeb will succeed, either. What will likely happen is Facebook will adjust their course or a slightly different Facebook clone will come out with sensible customer-focused privacy policies (like Mint or Wesabe had) and ways to get your data out if you want to leave.