I don't think he is trying to explain googles/facebooks. He mentions them but none of they payouts/percentiles he has are 1000x/.001
From the article : "More likely, you’ll end up with a solid 2x-5x return from a startup that grows into a viable long-term business." Also, if you look at the expected value contributed by the unlikely 20x return, its .4 out of a total of 2.35.
He's trying to hit hard ground balls, not homeruns.
From the article : "More likely, you’ll end up with a solid 2x-5x return from a startup that grows into a viable long-term business." Also, if you look at the expected value contributed by the unlikely 20x return, its .4 out of a total of 2.35.
He's trying to hit hard ground balls, not homeruns.