On: Web start-ups almost always fail. So why are these...

[maxwin]

"Assuming the trials are independent..."

This is a big assumption. Same entrepreneur, same personality, more or less same skills, same contact networks... It can hardly be independent.

[chegra84 → maxwin]

I know that's why i say that in actuality the number of trials is 4. Each trial compounds on the previous.

[krschultz → chegra84]

He might be saying that some people will fail at it no matter how many times they try.

[chegra84 → krschultz]

Yes some people will fail no matter what cause it's a probability. But it doesn't negate the fact the more you do it the higher the probability you will win.