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I feel like the most accurate predictions start as satire or comedy, not as serious bets. Satire plays to our gut instinct of what we suspect from the nature of future, and is shielded from technical criticism, so people feel more comfortable to take a stab at it without having to hedge.



There was a short story, which appeared in one of the HP calculator-centric publications of the 70's or 80's, I think written by a certain George R.R. Martin or Gordon Dickson, which attempted to extrapolate the HP 41CX into a portable voice activated assistant that could schedule appointments for you. I remember thinking that was pretty far fetched for a calculator. I don't think it would have made much more sense if the author had referred to the device as a "phone"...


On the one hand, if you squint, yes, we all have them in our pockets.

On the other hand, I recall a lot of "personal assistant" predictions in which phones were personal assistants, not just glorified calendars. As in, able to call the other person and do a live negotiation of times over voice, possibly with the other person's assistant. We don't have that yet; that turns out to be harder than we thought. Even the recent trend towards "bots" are still focusing on people interacting with the bots; nobody's brave enough to have the bots reaching out to people other than their customers and interacting with them yet, AFAIK. (Those who seem to use a lot of humans in the backend.)




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