Switzerland is my example of the best case scenario for the UK if they leave.
A haven for corporations/money, a good government that cares about the people, still open borders, still free trade with the EU, no say in anything they do.
But that's if the UK manages it well - I don't see that happening, corps will just jump over to Ireland, NHS is under heavy pressure, tariffs are still high (not because of the EU, but in spite, just look at food prices), wages rather low...
Open borders is why the Brexit people want to leave in the first place.
They're not going to want to leave just to do a EFTA/EEA type deal. Which means opening borders to the EU, adopting EU regulation, paying the EU and having no say within the EU all to get access to the single market.
I agree they'll be bitterly disappointed if they end up with an EEA type deal, but despite that they keep using Norway a an example of how you can manage well outside the EU. Ignoring that Norway is almost as integrated as the UK is - in some ways more (part of Schengen).
In the case of Brexit, I predict a rush from the pro-EU contingent in parliament to get an EEA style deal in place before the next elections.
The pro-EU contingent would certainly push for that but then the UK would be basically in the same situation they're in now. It's one thing not to have a voice within the EU in your imagination, it's a different thing really not to have one.
I think that what's really going to happen is that this will goes the same way all these independence movements go, they'll vote to remain in the end. It's one thing to imagine yourself as independent and I can see how it might be appealing but taking a step over the edge into the realm of uncertainty is not a comfortable or very human thing to do.
> The pro-EU contingent would certainly push for that but then the UK would be basically in the same situation they're in now.
And that's exactly why it is likely to push for it. And given that there's a solid pro-EU majority in parliament, it's likely that getting a deal as comprehensive as possible with the EU will be high priority, similar to how it was for Norway after the no vote in the referendum, where the EEA was used as a "consolation price" by the pro-EU parties.
They will argue that they have a strong mandate to do so, given that the Leave campaign have kept bringing up Norway as an example of how the UK can do fine outside the EU...
I do hope the UK votes to remain - I'm Norwegian, living in the UK. Though it won't affect me personally that much, as I qualify for leave to remain under at least three different categories. I agree with you that a good chunk of voters will end up voting remain even if they may be thinking of leaving now. The question is just if it will be enough.
There is more to quality of life than just number indices.
I have not spent enough time in Switzerland to form an opinion, but many people find Switzerland boring and overly strict/regulated - for example, if you take your trash to the dumpster after 8pm, you will be reported to the police by your neighbors.
A haven for corporations/money, a good government that cares about the people, still open borders, still free trade with the EU, no say in anything they do.
But that's if the UK manages it well - I don't see that happening, corps will just jump over to Ireland, NHS is under heavy pressure, tariffs are still high (not because of the EU, but in spite, just look at food prices), wages rather low...
It will do alright, but not better I think...