Even their usage/value of drones were kept fixed, then it could make sense to ban them even if drones only cause one airplane crash per decade. Obviously, this argument fails when you consider future value, but the point is that the numbers are not intuitive.
It's the value of everything in the aircraft. For a drone, that's basically the cost of the drone. For the airliner, it's the $10M per human life.
Apotential ban on drones would allow licenses and exceptions (thereby not destroying much commercial value), so the primary impact of the ban would be the amateur market. And for them, the cost of the device gives a good estimate of the value.
Yes, we could expand our calculation outward and try to capture all the externalities created by those dead people, or the drone, or the irrational fear of drones. But this would have quickly diminishing returns.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/birds-plane-crashes-arti...
The cost of a single downed passenger plane is ~$1B, while the entire yearly value of the drone market is $50M.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11425782
Even their usage/value of drones were kept fixed, then it could make sense to ban them even if drones only cause one airplane crash per decade. Obviously, this argument fails when you consider future value, but the point is that the numbers are not intuitive.