I wonder whether a different trading strategy would decrease the fee overhead. Or perhaps the cryptocurrency exchanges are not setup for short-run trading? I know very little about the exchanges, but this does seem curious to me.
One could presumably increase the margin for a classifier such that, to classify a sequence of price movements as a BUY or SELL, the predicted movement must be higher than what it is now (0.002% increase/decrease threshold)
Note I'm not really trying to 'convince' anyone of anything. I shared this on HN was to show off a fun problem domain I've been playing with. If you're looking for an end-game, you got me: Maybe I'll pick up a collaborator or two and get to profitability faster that way. Worst case, I get some resume fodder and an anecdote about machine learning to share at my next cocktail party. Best case: Eventually when cryptocurrencies are everywhere, long after this repo mints it's first millionaire, Hollywood will make a movie where I'm played by Johnny Depp. A haxxor can dream, can't I? ;)
The database model already supports the following inputs: price, volume, bid/ask spread. If a potential future contributor to this repo wanted to run a classifier or NN on this data, they could do so with significantly less time, using this repo's code.
I have a database of price, volume, bid/ask spread history for the entire poloniex index, at a minute-by-minute- granularity, for the last 2 months. I will post if there is enough interest. Vote here if interested => https://github.com/owocki/pytrader/issues
It doesn't look at the exchange's order book at all. Or use any outside data.
You are correct that the cryptocurrency trading market is in it's infancy, like the stock market 30 years ago.
The database model already supports the following inputs: price, volume, bid/ask spread. If a potential future contributor to this repo wanted to build a classifier or NN on this data, they could do so with significantly less time, using this repo's code.
I have a database of price, volume, bid/ask spread history for the entire poloniex index, at a minute-by-minute- granularity, for the last 2 months. I will post if there is enough interest. Vote here if interested => https://github.com/owocki/pytrader/issues/3
If someone gave you an half-written instruction manual and a toolkit that could turn an ordinary goose into a golden goose,
(1) Would you have a go at it?
(2) Would you share or hoard the golden eggs if you figured out the rest of the instructions?
(3) If you did share them, would the sum of the contributions compound and create more profit for everyone? Would the global markets for golden eggs come crashing down due to increased supply? And if so, how soon until that happens?
I do not presume to know the answer, but the undergraduate anthropology minor in me says that watching the 'pull requests' tab of this repo will yield some interesting clues.
Flat free to release with "Built to work with Poloniex". Similar to "Click to deploy to Heroku" buttons.
Affiliate link /discount code to track conversions or reward accordingly
Also, mining profitably requires special hardware built specifically for Bitcoin mining.
For bitcoin yes, but there are proof of work cryptocurrency systems out there that use CPU. And there are proof of stake systems out there that neither cpu or gpu intensive.
For a lot of people, cryptocurrency = bitcoin. But there's a growing number of crypto enthusiasts who see crypto as an constellation of cryptocurrencies, each with their own unique attributes and fundamentals, that complement (as well as compete with) bitcoin.
I'd presume that someone who is better versed in wall-street style algorithmic trading could speculate better than i what a mature cryptocurrency trading market would look like.
I'm curious to see what a mature market in this space looks like. It'll surely be different on a currency-by-currency basis, because volume, market depth, and fundamentals matter greatly and are unique on a per-currency basis. Time will tell.
As to whether profitable automatic currency trading competes with mining for compute time, I posit the following question to you: Are the two mutually exclusive? In a world with (1) scalable compute power via AWS, Digital Ocean, etc, and (2) both are profitable, why not do both instead of one?
This isn't hypothetical, the CPU mined coins aren't close to profitable with web services. And the people making profitable ASICs are using them rather than selling them because it's intrinsically more profitable.
You could. For me, 1 BTC is a negligible amount that was worth not having to manage the abstraction overhead of a simulation mode.