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> More likely, they will simply raise taxes to cover the debt load.

Historically unlikely. Democracies favor inflation, at the expense of mostly foreign creditors, over higher taxes, at the expense of the average voter.




The U.S. is in an unusual position, though, in that more than half its government bonds are held domestically, so screwing the bondholders is politically much harder. I agree that inflating out of a debt is probably still relatively likely, though, since as long as it isn't done in a precipitous fashion (i.e. Italy-style overnight devaluation), the small domestic bondholders aren't likely to revolt. An actual default seems unlikely though, given how many Americans own treasury bonds.




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