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Tableau stock down almost 50% (google.com)
426 points by sideband on Feb 5, 2016 | hide | past | favorite | 363 comments



Atlassian is currently down 23%.


Splunk is down about the same today as well: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ASPLK



Oh well. Tonight I'm gonna party like it's nineteen ninety-nine


New Relic also down by 25%, crazy day for Silicon Valley.


Which is pointless since they had a great earnings report, were cash flow positive for the quarter and raised their guidance. Additionally they mentioned in the call that no sector is more than 20% of their customers so they are diversified if a certain sector really tanks - like tech. They have 180 million in the bank so won't need credit markets any time soon and gradually approaching profitability.

Disclaimer: I have a position in NEWR and added today at the 21 level. This will certainly bounce back in the comings months or years. Will add if the irrationality continues.


Just looked at it. No profit and trading at 10x revenues.

You might be right who knows, but can't realy say the fear on this stock is irrational at the moment, imho


It's trading at about 6x revenue right now and even lower when looking at forward revenues.

Their growth is tremendous and are on a path to profitability. I get it - when the market are getting banged around like it is, there are few safe places. I just think the baby is being thrown out with the bath water in a lot cases. I'm using this to average down a bit and hold.


Yeah I see your point, but what I mean is that when so much of the current value of a company is based on future events, fear unfortunately is never irrational.

And for New Relic the expectations are really high, could still turn out to be a great business story (and I also think it will) but not necessarily a good investment because so much of this future success is already embedded in the price.


New Relic CEO (Lewis Cirne) sold all his shares the day before: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11045065

And New Relic shuts down their Seattle office: http://www.geekwire.com/2016/new-relic-shuts-seattle-office-...

AppDynamics, their direct competitor, is a late stage VC Unicorn ($2 bio evaluation) and delays its IPO.

Dynatrace another rather old-school competitor (like CA), which was bought out of Compuware by Thomas Bravo (private investor), has been taken private.

New Relic depends on smb sales, AppDynamics and Dynatrace more on enterprise sales. New Relic has the easier to use product, AppDynamic and Dynatrace are better at enterprise bullshit bingo and show more "nested pages" with often less detailed data to hide that they have worse/lacking insight. They stopped innovating like 2 years ago.

All three companies have a lot of employees and burn through their capital. Doesn't look good.


I use Tableau almost daily. Initially I found it harder to work with and avoided it for a while. On 2nd attempt, for some reason, everything clicked into place and I now find it fairly intuitive. Some of my opinions/experiences about it:

- Beyond simple queries, it becomes more easier to setup a view or two behind Tableau than to do it purely in Tableau. E.g. multiple level of latest times, more complex aggregations etc are more easily done in SQL than via Tableau.

- For some things Tableau doesn't do what we typically expect. Couple of examples:

- If you run a custom query joining two tables with some of the column names being same in both, Tableau cannot deal with it. Setting alias for columns using "as" works fine in SQL so I think it is not unreasonable to expect that to work.

- I recently tried to chart lag in request/response in microseconds. The data is stored as TIMESTAMP in our Vertica database. However, I found that Tableau doesn't show time more granular than seconds. That is kind of odd in today's common low-latency high-performance technology environment

Having said that, I really like the features it offers viz. Calculated fields which don't go away just because I change the data source, drag-and-drop dashboard constructions, very nice visualizations etc.


What do you use it for?

If it's for analysis why not use python or R, way more powerful and full of tools & libraries that give you speed you need?

If it's for reporting, why not to use chartio, looker or anything that connects directly to your db?

My opinion: If you know some python or R, you might still need chartio, looker and similar but Tableau doesn't make sense anymore.


I wasn't part of the decision making effort but I believe Qikview was also considered but the analysts preferred Tableau. It is used by the analysts as well our for our internal monitoring/charting/analysis purposes.


I see. I've also found myself in a situation where the company was using it and I had them drop it.

For reporting the idea of transforming & moving the data around really doesn't make much sense when compared to solutions which directly leverage your db or at least create an unique consistent datasource instead of many so-called extracts scattered around.


I was previously a Tableau expert at my then job. I was amazed at the missed opportunities by Tableau to make it indispensable to organizations. The core product was fine but it seemed like they could use a good PM to implement features around sharing, permissions, pricing etc. $1000 license for clients to view some basic report in a browser, the other option being a desktop installed reader.


Could it also be affected by the Amazon QuickSight preview that is going live?


likely, considering Qlikview is down 14%


There are several factors at play. I believe one of them is MS Power BI catching up.

https://powerbi.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/gartner-positions-m...


Looker is a much better product.


Agree, Looker customer here. Awesome product for ad-hoc BI reporting. Sits on top of Amazon Redshift perfectly and is quite fast for ad-hoc reporting.


I'm sure Tableau has its own right place in the plateau of BI & Analytics for big companies. As for small businesses and custom-built analytics as well as for operational data UIs you'll probably have no alternative than hacking it yourself with d3js. Or using it Tadaboard-like alternatives.


I was one of the first people to start using Tableau, I even bought a license for my own use so I can learn (Yep sick of the 14 day trial), but these days Excel / Power BI does most the work, Salesforce with Wave is competing with them plus so many open source software.


About 5 minutes of searching shows me that Tableau has had a massive growth of revenue, but a slightly more massive growth in sales/administrative expenses. What that tells me is this: The market loves Tableau, and keeps buying more of it. But the company has serious cost control problems in its sales and marketing departments, and has expanded there far too fast.

Anybody comparing typical open source or low cost BI solutions favorably to Tableau hasn't used it, or doesn't value their own time. Tableau is easy and deep.

Tableau's board needs to attack their out-of-control cost of sales (the pay-me-everything egos), and hopefully ignore the internet idiot mob effect on their stock price.

I don't own Tableau stock. I just like the product.


The problem is that you make something cool in Tableau and then want to collaborate with someone... and even if you talk them into it, soon their trial runs out. Yes, it's powerful and featured, but today's scene is about collaboration and sharing... and the sticker shock is just too much for that.


I was an early adopter of Tableau and fairly enthusiastic. But then I had a truly terrible licencing experience with them and have, since, refused to have ANYTHING to do with them.

Nice enough software, but a sleazy organisation. Use one of the other good alternatives.


What happened with the licensing? I see a few other people complaining about this.


huge corrections under way, guarantee this is not the end, just the beginning.

unicorn slaughter.

upside: expect house prices in the SF bay area to become more affordable.


> upside: expect house prices in the SF bay area to become more affordable.

Until the Chinese peg falls, I don't think you can. I mean, aren't SF house prices driver by Chinese investors about as much as by domestic Twitter millionaires?


It's probably supported by both. But if prices fall, that could lead to Chinese abandoning the market and dropping prices further.


it sure didn't dip much in 2008.


Correct. Cash real estate purchases by Chinese nationals will continue to dwarf those of Silicon Valley employees.


Are there any sources / links you can share on cash real estate purchases in SV or Bay Area? I'm interested in reading more about this and a preliminary search isn't yielding any recent news.


This sort of data would be interesting/ useful for any location. I was recently in Phuket where I was told property prices are dropping due to the Russian currency tanking, so many of the Russian owners are selling up. Knowing how much of an area is owned by certain foreigners would definitely be valuable knowledge.


Doubtful - if global investors aren't putting their money into stocks, they'll just continue to buy up real estate.


With such rose colored glasses you should become a real estate agent. Always a good time to buy!


Once you take the crazy money out of the equation, the SF Bay Area is not that appealing as a pure real estate play.


Tell that to Vancouver, BC :(


Russians and Chinese are a major contributor, and they're not so affected by SV cycles.


I don't know about SV, but foreign investment is pretty dam low in Victoria, BC, which could be used as a proxy for Vancouver. 97.8% were domestic buyers.[1]

It's not foreign buyers driving up the market in Vancouver, it's Canadians will to put themselves into serious debt in order to buy a house.

[1]http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/31/of-debt-data/


Actually, it is foreign investment: http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/in-a-six-month-peri...

  "In a recent six-month period about 70 per cent of all
   detached homes sold on Vancouver’s west side were
   purchased by Mainland China buyers..."
Even if those numbers are off, it's a huge influence on the market.


Did you read the article? They looked at the last names on the titles and if they were Mainland Chinese names they assumed they were foreigners, which is utterly ridiculous in the city of Vancouver where the population is almost 50% Asian, with most being multi-generational immigrants.

That's like doing the same study in Boston and claiming foreigner buyers from Ireland own 50% of Boston homes!


But what induces the higher market?

You get echo effects from places like Vancouver. Wealthy foreign buyers use high end real estate as a bank account increase the prices of top of the line housing significantly. Wealthier natives (Dentists?), now priced out of the highest end go down the scale and start purchasing lower end stuff with more money, increasing the price for everyone in a domino effect.

Government, not wanting the housing market to go down, create laws to allow subprime mortgage lending and buyers buy houses without real limits on price, and the middle class can now keep up with the price boom.


What? No, the Chinese are still heavily interested in the Vancouver market. Since when is small Victoria a proxy for big Vancouver?


Well, it's been reported that foreign buyers are invested in a lot of the more expensive properties (> $3 million) in certain regions, but a lot of Canadians are STILL buying Vancouver properties. There's been a lot of concern over Canadians getting in over their heads with mortgages. It also doesn't help that Vancouver has crappy wages.


Well the problem is, Victoria is the only city in Canada that collects citizenship information in house sales. It's the only data we have.

Victoria isn't that far from Vancouver, but prices have gone through the roof, similar to what Vancouver has experienced.


If you think SV is bad, check out the recent returns out of Russia and China!


What's SV?


Suddenly Vulnerable.


silicon valley


It will be after the next ... lets call it business cycle.


Whys that? Year round awesome weather not good enough?


You've never been to San Francisco, have you?


I'm not so sure about that, a lot of the conditions previously supporting real estate investment have given way. Oil's down, China is volatile, interest rates have risen, arguably you could say the trend could reverse due to people who previously bought as investments needing their money back.


That's assuming that they need their money back. The way I understand it is that there's a glut of money, and the rich are just piling it up and moving it around to where ever the best return seems to be.


Tableau and LinkedIn aren't exactly early-stage startups. They have pretty established businesses.


An established business should be self-sustaining, hence profitable.

Tableau is not, LinkedIn P/E is north of 1000.

But being profitable, that is just crazy talk.


True, but the performance of your neighbors affects investors' attitudes in general.


Does this affect big companies like Alphabet/Amazon/FB/Microsoft, etc?


It's the dot-com bubble all over again. Look at the NEWR stock chart, it looks like the dot-com burst in 2000-2001 compressed to a few months. It's happening a lot faster now, then it happened back then.


...but Tableau is in Seattle.


The additional 18k people that Amazon apparently plans to hire will probably keep the Seattle market hot for the foreseeable future. Also, Chinese investors.


Reporting --> Chartio, Sisense, Looker etc. (anything web focused without a desktop version pretty much)

Analysis --> Ipython

No room for Tableau and similar.


Tableau makes most straightforward analyses much simpler than attempting to do it in Ipython/pandas, especially when connecting to standard corporate data warehouses (probably on the order of 10x faster). Of course you quickly hit a ceiling in terms of complexity, but most analysts never really get to that point.


Simple analysis usually answer recurrent questions, for this there is reporting and Tableau is not a good tool for reporting (too slow).

For ad hoc analysis instead, there is really nothing more powerful than R or python and it's plenty of tools & libraries that give you the speed you need.


Tableau is a great product, but it's very expensive, like Oracle expensive. I used Saiku to hack together some BI dashboards for free http://www.meteorite.bi/. It did the job with a little bit of work.


Just curious whether anyone (else) here has experience with Bime? https://www.bimeanalytics.com/


Interesting that Microstrategy also is down quite a bit.


To be fair the markets are really getting beat down today. e.g. LinkedIn is down 45% from $194.


Apologies if the following is ignorant:

My exp with tableau was always that they obfuscate the final query...

Fuck that.

Looker doesn't && they even allow a meta Lang on top of them.

So for you to say "just do X" leaves many less sophisticated orgs left in the dark.

So my comment is both:

Fuck their position and yours.

I don't want to pay bullshit fees to tableau (with perf hits) && not be able to see the final query && not need an actually fairly highly competent DBA to know that x+x+x needs to be enabled in order for me to get to root.

If I pay service X give me the full fucking understanding as to how service results are generated.

(Yes yes I do understand how saas blah blah works and I'm just saying I personally find this process bullshit and immoral)


We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11046494 and marked it off-topic.


Downvoted. Your point may not be ignorant, but it certainly seems that way given the unnecessarily violent language.


His/her words are too naughty to be tolerated? They offend you to such a degree that you can't just ignore them? Come on now.


It's more that they imply the poster is really angry. If you saw two speakers in the street, one arguing reasonably and the other swearing his head off, I think most people would place less value on the ranter.


Uh... Maybe you dont talk to your friends too often...

You should see me with many many of my friends - dont imply anger where there is none, as we often get in "mock heated arguements" with smiles on our face.

I love you.


It makes sense to talk that way to your friends, because you're already friends and there are stronger bonds holding you together. That makes shredding each other fun, because everyone knows it's in jest.

A large semi-anonymous internet forum like HN is at the opposite extreme. We're almost all strangers and near-strangers. The community has low cohesion, so the same behavior, with the same good intention, does harm.

You know how rugby players are famous for beating the shit out of each other on the pitch, then going out drinking after the game? I always envied those guys that experience. It works because they have high cohesion. They also know not to walk up to a stranger, smack them onto the pavement, and expect to be bought a beer later. You need to adjust for context.


Apparently, sadly, I feel a much higher sense of cohesion with the HN community than others do.


That makes sense, and yeah that is kind of sad. But HN is what it is. It would be wonderful if the community could evolve to become more cohesive but that's a slow process.


If you have problems with "violent language" then that shouldn't lead to valuable content being hidden from others who don't have mental issues triggered by words they fifth like.


Vulgarity equates to violence? What a brave new world!




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