I've heard that, based on how the ACA was written, the penalty is only weakly enforceable; if you refuse to pay it, the IRS cannot garnish your wages or seize assets for it, etc. They can subtract it from a tax refund if you are owed one, but that's about it. So I imagine more and more people will find ways to not have insurance and also not pay the penalty, as both continue to become more expensive over time.
