I feel that that the article often mixes cause and effect. It also neglects to mention that the cost of producing music is much less than ten, twenty, fifty years ago. I have the tools in my modest office to record a track, edit it, cut it, release it, and promote it. That ease of production inevitably leads to a much greater supply than the market can handle.
I believe software is on the same path. Ten, twenty years ago, to create, distribute, and market software was a complex undertaking involving many actors. But now motivated software developers can release and market products with much greater ease than even shareware producers experienced in the 1990's.
Seven years ago I released my main software product (poker hand tracking and analysis for OS X), a niche product within a niche market. I thought I would own the niche forever. But due to the ease with which competitors could create and launch, there has been a steady stream of competitors in my small, small space. This increased supply should lead to a decreased average income for mini moguls like myself.
> I feel that that the article often mixes cause and effect.
That was also my impression. I certainly agree with your observation that it is the ease of distribution which influenced the development first and foremost. It doesn't really take a prophet to point out that stuff which is predestined to become "tap water" will be tap water one day.
Mass markets (and thus the pop music industry) have always wanted to sell stuff in huge quantities. From a business point of view, I see rock and roll more as a starting point of an iteration that aims at perfecting the generation of pop stars than a revolution. Shows like American Idol demonstrate that we have arrived. However, meanwhile people slowly get sick of casting shows.
So by borrowing some marketing vocabulary you could say that a star became a cash cow and now turned into a poor dog
I am not sure how things will pan out in the world of physical goods, though. While it is true that we will increasingly be able to manufacture stuff ourselves there is also this need for exclusivity. People enjoy owning iPhones and Beats headphones because they are portioned out by some sort of authorities.
Fascinating that the economist predicted the decline of the music industry, but everyone who's predicting that 3D printing will destroy the economy of physical things either doesn't understand 3d printing, making physical things, or both.
3D printing is great if you want crappy things made out of a single material. In the future it will be better for things made of some composites, but at the end of the day there are so many necessary processes and materials to create physical objects that 3D printing will always apply to niche objects. You can't print a coffee maker reasonably with any machine (glass? heating element? electronics, etc?) much less an iPhone.
Furthermore, there will increasingly be a software layer. I imagine HN readers are familiar with the economics of the software industry, but I'd just say that if physical objects adopt a software model (freemium, charge for updates, etc), and can do away with global supply chains etc, that will be a net win, not some destructive, music-industry-scale disaster.
That said, I love 3D printing and use it all the time. But it's only useful for customized, on-demand, or one-off stuff. It's already a burden to curate your own goods -- that's what people who are into, say, fashion spend time on -- who really believes we're all going to spend all day customizing our things? Unrealistic.
I used to listen to "good quality music" - classical. Then someone introduced me to "lesser quality music" - jazz. Then I started making my own crappy music - synthesizers and samplers.
I've thoroughly enjoyed everything so far!
So the same is true of 3d printing. I used to buy high-quality parts for my RC planes. Now I just print my own for less than 0.1% of the original cost. The planes still fly, I'm still having fun.
I believe software is on the same path. Ten, twenty years ago, to create, distribute, and market software was a complex undertaking involving many actors. But now motivated software developers can release and market products with much greater ease than even shareware producers experienced in the 1990's.
Seven years ago I released my main software product (poker hand tracking and analysis for OS X), a niche product within a niche market. I thought I would own the niche forever. But due to the ease with which competitors could create and launch, there has been a steady stream of competitors in my small, small space. This increased supply should lead to a decreased average income for mini moguls like myself.