Yes, I might quibble with some of your numbers a bit (for example I don't think you'll get 20% back in taxes) but I'll agree that you're in the ballpark. I think this is a good demonstration of how massive the changes we're talking about are. Particularly:
* The hit it will mean to many seniors standard of living due to social security cuts.
* The massive tax increases this will be on the middle class (primarily due to changes in tax deductions)
* The massive tax increase this will be on the upper middle class to rich (primarily due to changes on taxation of capital gains and dividends. Changes, by the way, that most economists oppose.)
* The additional massive tax increase that will come from somewhere to close the 2-3% GDP gap you mention.
I can see how some people might be in favor of this plan. I myself am not.
I agree the what comes back in taxes is a bit of hand-wave, it's hard to find stats on the average marginal tax rate.
I think the non-elderly middle class net effect will be close to if not a wash. They'll lose various tax deductions, but they'll get $11,700 x num_adults_in_household x (1 - marginal_tax_rate). And tax deductions only kick in when they are larger than the standard deduction to begin with. You need to be closer to the "upper middle" side of things to get there or have an unusually large deductions.
I don't think you need to get the gap amount wholly out of new taxes, as I said I think you can get some of it out of reduced aid to states, and/or as suggested by the poster below, military spending cuts.
As to your overall point, I concede that it is a tough sell.
Ya, you and I are definitely within the margin of error in our analysis of the situation. Thanks, by the way, for the very substantive comment. This is exactly what I was hoping for. I think a lot of people just say "UBI!" with close to no understanding of what they are proposing. I think it's very educational for them to take a look at the real tradeoffs involved.
* The massive tax increases this will be on the middle class (primarily due to changes in tax deductions)
* The massive tax increase this will be on the upper middle class to rich (primarily due to changes on taxation of capital gains and dividends. Changes, by the way, that most economists oppose.)
Well, UBI isn't supposed to be a tax cut for everyone, surely it'll be revenue neutral for everyone making over, say $50k?
* The hit it will mean to many seniors standard of living due to social security cuts.
* The massive tax increases this will be on the middle class (primarily due to changes in tax deductions)
* The massive tax increase this will be on the upper middle class to rich (primarily due to changes on taxation of capital gains and dividends. Changes, by the way, that most economists oppose.)
* The additional massive tax increase that will come from somewhere to close the 2-3% GDP gap you mention.
I can see how some people might be in favor of this plan. I myself am not.