Been working on a paper that's my attempt to add a meaningful update to macroeconomic theory, specifically around the effects of high-entropy outputs (waste, heat, harmful byproducts) as diminishing GDP and general population health. Working on some studies backed up with data to support. If anyone here is interested in economic theory, I could use your feedback.
"All of the severe incidents of this kind that we observed involved earlier versions of Claude Mythos Preview which, while still less prone to taking unwanted actions than Claude Opus 4.6, predated what turned out to be some of our most effective training interventions. These earlier versions were tested extensively internally and were shared with some external pilot users."
I personally love Jane Street lore. I think there is a lot of value to this theory, but people saying BTC would be at $150,000 feels misguided, since there are a lot of complex stories developing across the global economy. A lot of the sell off since October is, not only due to these ETF mechanisms, but also a general liquidity crunch that also affected performance of traditional software companies as economic uncertainty grows. I am reading more about bitcoin as a "canary in coal mine" for global liquidity uncertainty, a lot of which is coming from the current US Admin around tariffs, data reporting methodologies, and other policies.
Happy NYE! Was a big one for me: went sober. Alcohol became my band-aid solution for everything, which ended up with me ignoring things that needed to be done and putting my relationships, job, and health at major risk. I am now 10 months sober and beyond relieved to not be where I was one year ago. I found my dream job in the process, and was able to transition out of an old job that felt stale and holding me back. There is still lot's of progress to be made.
From what I've read, it's not that much of a concern yet. The immediate threat would be to orbital infrastructure, with debris burning up in the atmosphere. It would not change the trajectory of the moon. So, they can wait to get more info. If, by very small chance, 2024 YR impacted Earth in 2032, it would be localized disaster with enough time to move people out of the area of impact.
That being said, it's a good reason to work on asteroid deflection tech! Probably shouldn't waste it.
Cheaper mortgage rates means institutional capital that was otherwise sitting on the sidelines in T-bills will be deployed directly into that remaining supply.
Just start building already, 6.8 % for the 30-year fixed is well within historical precedent. High housing prices are a result of asset inflation for a product priced at the margin. Only way around that is to increase supply.
(Also consider this: there is nothing more unproductive than real estate - the stupid capital must be forced out of the mattress and into productive ventures.)
