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Curious George here: why are you trying to predict where the mouse is going? :)


Game developers are constantly trying to minimize lag. I have no idea if computers are so fast these days that it is a "solved" problem, but I knew a game developer ages ago who used a predictive mouse model to reduce the apparent lag by guessing where the mouse would be at the time the frame was displayed (considering it took 30 ms or whatever to render the frame).


Quake internet play only became acceptable when client side prediction was implemented, I'm sure it would be better to have real prediction instead of simple interpolation.

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ESWAT/john-carmack-plan-ar...


What an amazing look into one of the greatest minds in programming!

Thank you for this treasure.

The relevant bits:

> I am now allowing the client to guess at the results of the users movement until the authoritative response from the server comes through. This is a biiiig architectural change. The client now needs to know about solidity of objects, friction, gravity, etc. I am sad to see the elegent client-as-terminal setup go away, but I am practical above idealistic.

> The server is still the final word, so the client is allways repredicting it's movement based off of the last known good message from the server.


Competitive online games commonly predict the player's movement. Network latencies have improved and are now usually <16ms (useful milestone since at 60fps you render a frame every 16.6ms), but players expect to still be able to smoothly play when joining from the other side of the continent to play with their friends. You usually want every client to agree where everyone is, and predicting movement leads to less disagreement than what you would get from using "outdated" state because of speed-of-light delays.

If you want to predict not just position but also orientation in a shooter game, that's basically predicting the mouse movements.


The only thing worse than lag is uneven lag, which is what you're going to end up with. Constant lag can be dealt with by players, jitter can't.


Just to see how good the model is (maybe it’s creepily good in a fun way)


There's a fun game idea in there! Imagine having to outmaneuver a constantly learning model. Not to mention the possibilities of using this in genres like bullet hell...


Catching cheaters in games might seem like a good use.


Think of the sweet sweet ad revenue!


Haha as if advertisers don't know me better than I know me


I think Martha Stewart went to jail for insider trading idk how similar that is. With OTA updates still could claim this could happen.

This imo is less than both Theranos and insider trading like the FSD has disclaimers right? Unless the argument is Tesla is only valuable because of FSD and not best in class EV experience

The pay package being declined by a Delaware court and now this couldnt have come at a worse time for Musk though. Billionaires got their problems too huh


> Unless the argument is Tesla is only valuable because of FSD

That's not how fraud works. Fraud doesn't require that the false claim us the only source of value of the product, it only requires that the false claim is material to the decision to purchase the product at the price offered.


It's going to be hard to prove fraud when literally everywhere you buy it it said it is not currently available and gave no timeline to when you would receive it.


> Unless the argument is Tesla is only valuable because of FSD

Not specifically that, but Musk has stated that he sees Tesla as a software company.


> Martha Stewart went to jail for insider trading

"Stewart was found guilty on charges including conspiracy and obstruction of justice" [1]. She sold shares on inside information. She went to jail for lying to investigators about it.

[1] https://people.com/martha-stewart-fraud-case-prison-sentence...


There was no insider trading. She thought she was in trouble and made up a story for the investigators that it was a limit order, which she was convicted of.

While lying is bad, this was a case of overzealous prosecution because it was a high-profile case and an inappropriate use of resources. Instead of prison, they should have just had her do some cheezy PSAs and enter in to a deferred prosecution agreement.

I find the members of congress consistently beating the market to be much more troubling.


> was no insider trading

"Martha Stewart, the founder of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, also became embroiled in the scandal after it emerged that her broker, Peter Bacanovic, tipped her off that ImClone was about to drop. In response, Stewart sold about $230,000 in ImClone shares on December 27, 2001, a day before the announcement of the FDA decision" [1].

It’s far from fact that she did not trade on inside information.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImClone_stock_trading_case


"Insider trading" doesn't have a well defined boundary. The SEC sued Mark Cuban [1] for "committing securities fraud by engaging in illegal insider trading" under similar circumstances. But he kept his mouth shut, didn't destroy evidence, and didn't lie to the FBI. Did he trade on "inside information"? Sure. But the Jury found him not guilty of insider trading.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Cuban#SEC_insider_trading...


> "Insider trading" doesn't have a well defined boundary

Correct. In our courts it’s ambiguously defined.

Colloquially, Stewart got a tip-off that arose from the non-public outcome of a drug trial. Whether she committed insider trading is open; whether she traded—knowingly or unknowingly—on material non-public information is pretty clear.


It was third-party hearsay. The stock tip came from her stock broker, who also happened to handle transactions for people with inside knowledge. The broker didn't know the details about the FDA trials, only the movement some of his clients were making.

This is why she wasn't tried on insider trading, but instead on the story she made up to cover the fact that she was given this knowledge indirectly.


> stock tip came from her stock broker, who also happened to handle transactions for people with inside knowledge. The broker didn't know the details about the FDA trials

Source? Not disputing the broker was facilitating others’ insider trades, but if they were, it takes the suspicion to a whole new level around why this broker is so comfortable with his clients with potential insider status making large bets just ahead of corporate events.


Agreed. I don't think she knowingly insider traded. After the fact, the authorities were going after her broker and she erased a voice mail message to protect the broker. They were upset that she deleted evidence and went after her because she was high profile.


> were upset that she deleted evidence and went after her because she was high profile

She also previously held securities licenses. That takes entire categories of innocent error out of the picture. I hold securities licenses. I’d be held to a higher standard because plausible deniability is removed.


When are these "risk takers" ever taking a risk if their behavior is always excused?


worth looking into cathy wood's role in this respect. . .


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