Trump 2016 was taken less seriously by multinationals, as the anti-globalization wave hasn't fully realized, and corporation were paying lip service to Trump, which the 2016 administration had no choice but to accept it due to only having power in the executive branch.
Trump 2024 is a completely different animal, with control in all 3 branches of government, plus overwhelming voter support in the election. As well as the collapse of globalization (baby boomer retiring reducing demand), and many countries moving to the right at the same time. Reshoring is the correct choice for the next 10 years and beyond, and many multinationals recognize this and have committed hundreds of billions accordingly.
Some of the more recent numbers for the bigger bubble countries
- US June deficit narrowed 16% to 60 billion. deficit with China dropped 30% to 9.5 billion, lowest deficit in 21 years, since February 2004. Now US expects 50 billion per month in tariffs revenue.
- China's trade surplus in June rose to 683 billion, exports to the United States sank nearly 22% year-on-year, exports to Africa and Southeast Asia surged at double-digit rates as Chinese businesses diverted sales to other markets. Chinese industrial profits however, plunged 10% in may 2025.
> truth is the margins for Chinese exporters have collapsed - there was a Chinese industrial profit drop of 10% in may and 5% in June [from comment below]
Truth is someone doesn't know how to read NBS/MoF data.
Decompose Industrial Profit Index, export sector margins private sector / manufacturing have been growing ~3% yoy/ytd. Stuff PRC is driving hard like electronic machinery up 10%, general manufacturing up 7%, autos, computers, electronics, up 4%.
Headline "Industrial Profit Index" down because _domestic_ coal and fossil profit %'s collapsed, something like -50% for coal and -10% for fossil. Coal demand down due to renewable rollout, fossil because cheap RU imports. Energy industrial profit are mostly large SEOs which get's disproportionated weighted in Index by NBS who doesn't publish profit index ex energy -> most exporters private companies increasing profitability gets skewed by headline number. People see Industrial Profit Index down, thinking profits across sectors down, but it's just domestic/SEO energy profit dragging down other sectors whose profit index increasing. Reality is if PRC export to US down, but US imports from countries known to tranship/reroute from PRC up then PRC mostly not cutting margins/absorbing tariffs but diverting.
$50B / month in tariff revenue is entirely paid by Americans.
Meanwhile Trump is adding trillions in debt. And if the “reshoring” of manufacturing actually succeeds to any degree, tariff revenue will only go down.
It’s like a diet plan where an obese man is cutting off his own flesh. You might reach the weight goal, but the side effects will kill you.
I'm not sure what you expect to happen? Tariffs can be a tool to promote local industry but when used like this they're more of a tax on Americans. I don't think other countries want to play the retaliatory game because it's lose lose. Instead they'll make deals where they can and otherwise get on with things. Trade is going to reorient by itself. That will take time but it's already happening.
In any case, it doesn't show the US is strong. Everyone already knew it has the strongest economy in the world. What it does show is that the US is less stable than partners believed. It's hard to see this benefiting the American economy in the long term. But you know, that might not be terrible, if American workers get more jobs and a larger share of the pie, then it might work out.
>Dalio analysis agrees that today China power is rising and the USA is weakening
Ray Dalio knows nothing. US just put tariffs on every other country in the world. And threatened China with 145% tariffs to get them to come to the table and open up Chinese market even more, even though China is in its own Great Depression right now.
1.) customers who don't know about the practice, now expect food right away for very cheap price, which bankrupts traditional restaurants that cook from fresh ingredients. An analogy could be off the shelf software or custom software losing sales to vibe coded software
2.) customers who do know about the practice, stops ordering food altogether, due to food issues (prepared ingredients are very low quality, oil could be very dirty) or they could cook prepared food at home in their own microwave for even cheaper. An analogy is programmers coding their own software using vibe coding.
3.) declining quality of food, and less and less people eating out in China. It's gotten so bad that now hotel restaurants, which would be the fine dining options, are setting up food stalls in the street to sell cheap but freshly cooked food, in order to get people into the hotel restaurants. An analogy might be softwares with per seat pricing changing to action based pricing for an initial period.
Trump 2024 is a completely different animal, with control in all 3 branches of government, plus overwhelming voter support in the election. As well as the collapse of globalization (baby boomer retiring reducing demand), and many countries moving to the right at the same time. Reshoring is the correct choice for the next 10 years and beyond, and many multinationals recognize this and have committed hundreds of billions accordingly.