I am convinced that the mass layoffs are occurring because forward-thinking executives can see that AI agents are coming to replace employees faster than most people expect. By doing layoffs early they can cut staff before public opinion shifts to questioning AI as the motive, as opposed to "the economy".
From what I can see, GPT-4 is incredibly useful but you have to be very careful to lead it in the correct direction otherwise it produces bad outputs. I say this as somebody that probably uses it every 10 minutes. Do you think that it will stop making errors of judgment and be able to behave as an agent soon?
I've not encountered anything yet that gives me faith in that, other than hype about it increasing in ability exponentially which seems unlikely.
> I say this as somebody that probably uses it every 10 minutes
Do you feel like your ability to produce correct output with GPT improved with practice? If so, then eventually you might reach a point where you get 99.99% accuracy with it, and this can easily 10x your productivity.
No, that's not really what has happened. If you ask a question, it tends to mean you lack knowledge about something, and therefore you don't have enough context to produce a question that perfectly teases out the correct answer from GPT. Instead what happens is that you have to carefully engage in conversation and iterate towards improving GPTs context and your understanding of what it is saying well enough to ask it more incisive questions or to correct obvious inconsistencies in what it has communicated.
That’s a level of confidence, preparation and forward thinking that would be uncharacteristic. The reality is that everyone else is cutting staff so it’s become expected. And because it’s expected and happening throughout the industry it’s a lot easier to do a layoff or two now than it was a year ago
It’s not because it’s “expected” in the abstract. It’s because everyone is competing for money with the US Treasury, and the rates on those Treasury bills are looking better than they have in a long long while.
Did you have a growth business that’s going to be 50% bigger in 10 years? A few years ago that would sound not-amazing but reasonable. Today that’s nothing. You can get that kind of returns from bonds with like zero risk.
Firms therefore prioritize savings like they haven’t done in years.
The point is that if they are not letting go of employees for economic reasons i.e. they are no longer economically viable because of the environment, then they must be getting rid of them while the employees are actively valuable? otherwise the AI agent argument holds no water, because the employees aren't creating value anyway, so their dismissal is orthogonal to the AI agent question.
These companies know that AI agents are coming at them hard and fast. I think this and other layoffs are happening now so they can cut down the numbers before the question becomes "Are you replacing them with AI?".
Which tracks with it not impacting "hourly frontline workers employed at the parks and resorts".
> "Suing could force the government to start the repayment machinery again, which might not be a terrible thing. Given the low unemployment rate and the existence of income-driven repayment plans for people who are struggling, few people would be ruined by restoring the February 2020 status quo."
This particularly perturbed me with the implication that "ruining" a few people is fine as long as a few other people are made wealthier.
No you don’t. Community college is not that expensive, plenty of jobs offer partial or more tuition reimbursement, and if you get good grades you will have scholarships and grants available. You may have some need left over if you need housing but that’s where loans and a summer job come in. It’s not a free vacation to go to college and be housed there, need to do it with a plan. It’s simple to get a great education without needing huge loans. America is great.
I agree. They should be sued. Of course it’s incredibly hard to prove and even harder to sue someone you like. And lawsuits where neither side has money are tricky.
Probably universities or departments as a whole should be sued.
17 year old you should be able to default on student loans and get a clean slate, like any other kind of debt. If student loans worked exactly like regular loans (e.g you could declare bankruptcy, they weren't subsidized, etc.) then no one would give 17 year old you a loan unless you were statistically likely to be able to repay it (i.e majoring in something with good outcomes at a half-decent university). AND schools wouldn't expect you to be able to pull out 50k/year, they would have to adjust tuition accordingly, and we wouldn't have this crazy university tuition inflation.
We're in this mess because federal student loans live in a bizarro world where they're not subject to any of the normal market forces, checks, and balances that make regular debt work well for society. They are handed out without any kind of real due-diligence, and have absolutely no incentive to be good investments.
If we want to redistribute wealth to invest in education, that's fantastic, but we should just give it in the form of grants, scholarships, or (only in my dreams) some free regional federal universities and technical colleges. Instead we tried to play with the market and got burned, which isn't surprising to anyone with who has studied economics.
What does that have to do with "choosing an advantageous degree"? We are a land of (misappropriated) abundance and can absolutely support those who wish to engage in higher learning and push the boundaries of philosophy and science.
I don't want to counter your strawman with another, but not everyone needs to get an engineering degree.
> they had to [take a huge loan] in order to study.
This isn't true. If you go to a state school and work part time to cover your living expenses, you can get an undergrad degree very cheap. And the most prestigious of private schools (e.g. Ivy league) offer very generous needs-based scholarships, so if you come from a poor family you don't have to pay.
You "have to" get a huge loan if you choose to attend a very expensive private school that won't give you a needs-based scholarship. But nobody has to do that, it's a choice some people make. It's a decision made by naive kids straight out of highschool so I still have some sympathy, but this narrative of necessarily having to take huge loans is part of the problem and helps to normalize this. The belief that huge loans are necessary in America is wrong and contributes to the real problem.
> The 2021-22 average tuition and fees sticker price for full-time, in-state students at public four-year colleges ranged from a low of $6,100 in Wyoming to a high of $17,750 in Vermont.
> Following Wyoming, the least expensive states were Florida ($6,370), Montana ($7,265), Utah ($7,387), and North Carolina ($7,389).
> After Vermont, the most expensive states for four-year universities were New Hampshire ($17,040), Pennsylvania ($15,312), New Jersey ($14,963), and Illinois ($14,667).
> Over the past five years, average in-state tuition and fees at public four-year institutions fell in 18 states after adjusting for inflation. During that same time period, only six states (Alaska, Connecticut, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon and Rhode Island) saw their average in-state tuition increase by 10% or more.
> According to the report, in 2019-20, 75% of first-time, full-time students attending public two-year colleges received federal, state or institutional grant aid. At public four-year universities, 78% of students were awarded such aid.
> The average net tuition and fees paid by first-time, full-time in-state students at public four-year institutions was estimated to be $2,640, the lowest it’s been since 2006-07, down more than a $1,000 from a peak in 2012-13 of $3,720 (in 2021 dollars).
Finding for state schools has dropped so low many private schools are cheaper than state schools. That doesn’t mean all schools are unaffordable without loans, living at home while going to school can make a huge difference.
But scool for some doesn’t mean there’s no problem.
VT is certainly more expensive than the national average, but that $32k figure is the sticker price, not net tuition. Net tuition is what actually counts when you're talking about how much debt students will incur. Everybody is made to apply for financial assistance, grants and scholarships, etc etc. Nobody pays the sticker price unless their family is quite wealthy. The Virginia Guaranteed Assistance Program is a state funded needs-based grant for in-state students with very low performance requirements (keep your GPA above 2.0.) Depending on your degree of need, they will pay up to the full tuition price, including all required fees and book costs.
> summer expenses
Cost of living expenses will be incurred whether you go to college or not. Regardless, most people go home for the summer and 'mooch' off their parents. Summer is also a good time to find an internship. With good internships you can pay off much of your debt before you even graduate. If good internships don't exist for whatever you're studying, that should be taken as a warning..
I actually applied for VT years ago and the only thing they offered was student loans making many private schools far more affordable. Further unless something changed they don’t let freshman figure out their own accommodation. So our hypothetical recent graduate has to actually spend roughly that much money even if they happen to live next to campus.
> Cost of living expenses will be incurred whether you go to college or not.
Again sure, but they impact how much money someone can save from a summer job. If you’re making 15$ an hour while living at home with free room and board then you can save quite a bit. However, that’s far from universal for most people trying to make it on with a high school diploma alone they simply don’t generate a significant surplus every week.
Net tuition is calculated by subtracting the grants and financial assistance, which I assure you, really do exist and most students qualify for at least some. Maybe you personally didn't qualify, but that doesn't mean they didn't exist for "our hypothetical recent graduate."
Schools include loans in that financial assistance category. So sure most revive “assistance” but that bill comes due. VT under grads can’t actually come up with that kind of money thus the loans. ~30k of loans * 4 years = 120K which isn’t extreme for undergraduate, but ignores interest which will greatly compound if someone seeks further education.
Thus why actual college affordability is important rather than just loans. Failing to become a doctor is financial suicide for most people in the US. Which plays a huge role in our ruinous healthcare costs.
My part time job paid me 7.50/hr, federal minimum wage. At the end of each semester I didn’t even have enough to pay for my “technology fee” much less my living expenses.
> The average net tuition and fees paid by first-time, full-time in-state students at public four-year institutions was estimated to be $2,640, the lowest it’s been since 2006-07, down more than a $1,000 from a peak in 2012-13 of $3,720 (in 2021 dollars).
Even if you have to take out a loan while attending a state school, it doesn't have to be a huge loan. And even a crappy part-time job will reduce that burden, even if it doesn't cover your tuition fully.
Averages which exclude scholarships, books etc really distort these numbers.
Many schools require students to pay for room and board even if they live nearby. Schools are hiding tuition costs in those fees and really need people to pay them.
Which more prosperous country? Are you also comparing median salaries after graduation in that country? How do the numbers shake out 10 years after graduation?
Anyone who went to community college and makes the median wage ($69,717) in America is doing way better financially than someone who went school for free in France and makes median wage (€22,140). There's really no contest on prosperity for college grads even when you include ridiculous student loans (median for US: $22K).
This is pretty normal and how certain economic policies have worked, for example, deregulation of the banks allowed banking companies and their employees to get insanely rich while eventually causing the 2007 recession.
Im disturbed with these “opinion” articles and influence they have.
it still make zero sense to me why student loan payments on hold. should we also put car loan payment on hold? credit card payments?
yes..people took loans without thinking if they pay off debt. is it every borrower? No.
easy scheme for political party to get votes. make perfect sense to me why sofi would sue.
i always think to my home country. being born in USA like winning lottery. just green card and no citizenship is like lottery. endless opportunity to do something in USA. no mentally and physically ok adult in USA have reason to be in poverty.
but of course USA people thinking government magically solve all of it. true irony that developed country fall into our third world thinking mindset.
What third world countries think 'government magically solves' everything? If anything, trust in government is much higher in regions with more political stability and prosperity.
its not that we believe government DOES solve everything or trust government. it’s that we believe government is the answer and only government responsible.
constant load shedding? parliaments job to fix.
people dont want to obey traffic rule? could it be something with our culture? of course not. government problem to fix.
Ok..trash everywhere in street? government problem to fix. i will say government should fix it, ignoring that it is myself throwing that trash out on the street instead of in bin even when rubbish bin is right there at hand distance.
not enough jobs? government should fix by hiring everyone.
do we trust government, no. but my party is good and yours corrupt. if my prime minister favorite actually shoots child it is okay and i will justify it.
thats the type of mindset. every problem i have.. it is someone else’s fault. i have zero responsibility.
So you see people both in the third world and first world with this mindset? Is it possible that this mindset isn't actually the cause of the third world's problems? Could it be that the governments are actually worse in the third world?
Except when top voted comments are hivemind approved 'funny' quips/responses, or in reply to exercises in creative writing like half the posts in relationshipadvice, iwantthemanager, nuclear/pettyrevenge, etc
This is great. I'd love this with the same style radio chatter, but from a bot that watches my news sources, tweets, emails, and radios itself to discuss interesting things happening.
"An email just came in at 0743 AM from Steve.. over" ... "Yeah that looks like an interesting followup to the one from John last week. Someone should reply to this one. Over."
Oh this would be awesome. For very long time I’ve been looking for an unintrusive way to receive important notifications on time. And since I almost always listen to music this would work well.
The search for a perfect notification system for a large org is like a chemical clock reaction, which swings back and forth between states of equilibrium.
No one in an org will ever be on the same page, as people work on different tasks.
Some tasks are repetitive and allow you to dip your attention in and out.
Other tasks might require deep thought (like composition and putting words to a document) where your thoughts and output can’t be mixed with the sound of others coming in.
It works for truckers/pilots because the input/output by workers is relatively the same and compatible with background “noise”, but this metaphor breaks down as soon as the type of work changes.
Funny, we've just replaced DocuSign with a custom-built solution that will achieve full ROI in less than one year, thanks to recent price hikes on the contract.
I wasn't involved in the legal side and am not a lawyer, but in my limited understanding of US contract law (where this is exclusively used) it is quite simple to create a binding contract that will stand up in court. Building it, if anything, showed how simple the process can actually be.
