sure but America's ship building doesn't appear to be at the level of being able to cranking out carriers should they start losing them. Conversely I imagine it might have a better shot at cranking out a smaller blue print en-masse.
> You mean the people who voted for trump or those who voted for the democrats?
I'm not talking about plebs, I'm talking about people who know their shit and work at government level. We could just look at the invention of the past century and pluck out relevant events like the moon landing, electronic computer, transistor or ARPANET. Clearly there are smart people living in that nation. They have the talent to draw from to get good advice about stuff like: what Iran's first response might be to an aerial assault.
> Are there some causal reasons you think americans are smarter than people in other countries?
I never said that. I said America is home to SOME of the brightest minds in the world. That sentence does not apportion all the brightest minds to that nation. What you read is clearly something different from what I wrote. Do you have a chip on your shoulder?
Your argument was that you could use your bright minds to win against the iranians. That implies they are brighter than the iranians.
I think america clearly had better opportunities for bright people in the past. Maybe some moved also there so the proportion is a little higher than in other places.
that wasn't my argument. My argument is that the US has enough intelligent people to wargame what would happen in response to their initial strikes on Iran. That they seemingly have no available counter-play to the blocking of the straight of hormuz implies that they have dismissed any experts from the decision making process and are just winging it. Because... why would you start a war when you're weak to your opponent's first obvious countermove?
So yea, you misread that to assume that I was making some quasi-racist statement about Iran. So my question to you, is why do you think you made that intentional misinterpretation?
We don't have all the intelligence but we do have many institutions to promote such talent. As well as formerly having policy which let other bright minds immigrate into the US.
Magnus Carlsen is still absolutely destroying anyone else in his 30s. By far.
He didn't compete for the world champion becaue he didn't want to put in the effort for the preparation (again). Also it would have been boring if he played it because he would have won again.
He intentionally starts with subobtimal openings at major turnaments because of boredom and still wins.
Yes, magnus carlsen is a legendary player/the best player right now, there isn't much denying about it.
Regarding boredom, I think that either it was magnus or hikaru who are/were really optimistic about chess960 (randomized chess essentially) because they have less value to openings and more values to the more live-ness of the situation so it has some exciting element to it.
At a certain point for magnus, there really is only enough excitement within classical chess if you are the best players in the world. But he seems excited about chess960
(Edit: you have accidentally made me wonder but would hackernews like a chess club of our community [preferably within lichess]?) https://lichess.org/team/hackernews-chess-club (The password is dang) :]
Edit2: Interestingly, there is already a hackernews-chess-club after searching back on hackernews, https://lichess.org/team/hacker-news, but they had the idea 6 years ago interesting :)
It's very clear from looking at chess, but also e.g. online gaming and sports that people in their 20s have the strongest cognitive capabilities, especially "processing speed".
But on the other hand, the world is very complicated and you can't know much in your 20s.
I'm today a much better programmer than 10 years ago, even with slightly less brains.
You are not going to write an impactfull novel without live experience.
How that declines varies and some people still have most cognitive capabilities in their 70s.
You have a GPU already (at least an iGPU and an NPU on most newer platforms) as part of your computer, might as well get some use out of it with local inference. And trying to do inference on a larger model with an undersized GPU will have you idling a lot less than 99% - but that still makes a lot of sense for most casual users who will only rarely need a genuine "Pro" class answer from AI. Doing that locally is way less hassle than paying for a subscription or messing with API spend.
> Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.
This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently?
Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult.
Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before.
Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates.
Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.
Looking around, and especially forward, it would be military tech, e.g. [1], and its supply chain, e.g. [2] :-\ Valuations are not as crazy, but I bet there'll going to be a lot of demand in the coming decade, unfortunately.
Chip production, too, of course, but it's overflowing with money already, apparently. It's growing though, because there are real actual shortages of stuff like RAM and SSDs, there's money to be made immediately if you can. Chinese RAM manufacturers are building out like crazy.
Would you be fine with the ethical implications of funding the industry to fight WWII? Would you consider funding Ukrainian military unethical? Or Taiwanese?
This is, sadly, not theoretical, and I'm afraid we'll soon see more of such choices, not fewer.
Anduril is the only company in this sector in the US that has any promise and they aren't even public. Most of us are not going to get our hands on this.
Traditional defense sector looks more like Jeep, or Kodak...
"The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, "stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'"
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