I’m not sure that’s the case even if in retrospect we can clearly argue this
In 1998, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences, infamously predicted that “the growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” [1] and even though that turned out to be spectacularly wrong it shows the attitude in the early days wasn’t one of absolute certainty.
And certainly the current AI boom is most visibly known for LLMs but there is a lot more happening beyond chatbots.
there was a lot of skepticism, and from some heavy hitters.
Sears famously laughing at online orders is a great example. They already had the mail over market owned, and already had the distribution, sourcing, and utterly dominant brand recognition in that space. People used to order homes from Sears!
They just needed the online catalog. But the CEO was a psychopath Randian who thought the internet was a fad and now Amazon runs things.
Same with Toy R Us, and Radioshack, which did a lot of mail order.
It originates in Yann LeCunn’s paper from 2022 [1], the term AMI being district from AGI. However, the A has changed over the past few years from autonomous to advanced and even augmented, depending on context
> The mission of Sail is to unify stream processing, batch processing, and compute-intensive (AI) workloads. Currently, Sail features a drop-in replacement for Spark SQL and the Spark DataFrame API in single-process settings.
Meta is already working on this [1], not sure it can replace NVIDIA for training large models within that time frame however. The ecosystem around their chips is what gives a huge competitive advantage, not having to build entire libraries and optimize a ton of code goes a long way in adoptions and retention.
N.B.: there are other 3rd-party competitors like Cerebras [2] who offer all-in-one solutions for their giant wafers along with libraries and data centers but I’m not sure behemoths would migrate to these offerings either
The title and opening is perhaps giving people reason to infer something which Lecun isn’t arguing, that AI isn’t going to reach such a level of intelligence. Indeed, he’s published on the topic of Autonomous/Augmented Machine Intelligence [1] and while a subtle difference between that and AGI, it’s not negating the possibility. Just perhaps not through existing LLM architectures
It also invites the mistaken judgement that LLM-derived architecture cannot possibly give human level reasoning.
"No matter what you do to an LLM it's still a stochastic parrot."
Adding memory? Nope.
Interactive hypothesis testing and iterative experiments? Sounds like something a parrot would say.
It can automatically solve 12% of GitHub issues? Pfft, I could theoretically do 100%. If I wasn't incredibly busy...
It's okay though. At this point, when someone cites Lecun to prove LLMs can never reason, we can safely assume they don't care about having an informed opinion. It's a screening signal. It tells us someone does not have a useful theory of mind and reasoning, and does not intend to do constructive work on AI systems that can reason.
I would have liked to see a more generic implementation that isn't necessarily tied to NVIDIA, while I agree that's a much greater ask than a 7-person team can probably take on, there's a whole cohort of ML and data science folks working on, say, MacOS that are missing out on this optimization.
In a world of finite time and resources, wouldn't it be more useful to improve services on the lines themselves? The Elizabeth line had the highest rate of cancelations in the entire UK between July and September
While I agree the public transit in the US is abysmal at best, I'm not sure the UK is a good measure anymore.
Rail strikes and engineering work are happening with such frequency that getting around seems to take longer and longer. A 1+ hour commute to just travel 10 miles is pretty absurd.
Insane cost overages and years of delays aside, the Elizabeth line has suffered from nearly 10% of all services being canceled in August.
At one point I was needing to take the Northern line from Clapham and would have to wait 3-4 trains before I could squeeze on. The max I waited was 10. Then I moved away.
Add to that infrastructure issues like Hammersmith and Wandsworth bridge closures and commuting becomes a soul crushing prospect.
I don't know what the solution is but with such a high tax rate in the country you'd expect much better. Other European countries seem to have it figured out.
Perhaps experiences like yours is why I was downvoted for my London comment. But we are talking relative to the US here, and I do believe there is no comparison. I also found the bus network rather extensive and frequent in the suburban areas, and not unpleasant compared to other countries.
Senior citizens are also more flexible with their travel times and often have the luxury of avoiding rush hour
Many western economic powerhouses of old seem to be facing the same infrastructure problems, whereas autocratic countries that are building everything from scratch appear to have their shit together by comparison. It's not good PR unfortunately.
I’m not sure that’s the case even if in retrospect we can clearly argue this
In 1998, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences, infamously predicted that “the growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” [1] and even though that turned out to be spectacularly wrong it shows the attitude in the early days wasn’t one of absolute certainty.
And certainly the current AI boom is most visibly known for LLMs but there is a lot more happening beyond chatbots.
[1] https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff...
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