Most people who follow prediction markets watch prices. Most people who follow Congress watch committee hearings. Almost nobody watches both at the same time.
We built a system that does. The SimpleFunctions Legislation Tracker cross-references every active bill in the 119th Congress against prediction market contracts on Kalshi. Right now it tracks 120 bill-market pairs and 23 Senate confirmation markets — 143 total.
The data tells you things that neither source tells you alone.
What the Cross-Reference Reveals
Take the SAVE Act (H.R. 22). It passed the House, got received by the Senate, and Kalshi has a contract on it at 11¢ — implying an 11% probability of becoming law before January 2027. The annualized yield on a Yes position is 1,114%. The market is saying: this bill is almost certainly dead, but the tiny chance it passes is priced cheaply enough that someone is willing to hold it.
Or look at the SNAP restriction market (KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04). The bill was referred to two committees, which in congressional procedure usually means slow death. The market agrees: 14¢, or 14% implied probability. But the IY is 846% — because the resolution date is close enough that even a small probability shift produces an enormous annualized return.
The Trump airport renaming bill (KXBILLS-AIRP) sits at 10¢ with an IY of 1,253%. It was referred to a subcommittee and hasn't moved. The market has correctly priced it as a symbolic gesture with almost zero chance of passage.
Tom Steyer is the prediction-market favorite for California governor. On Kalshi he trades at 61 cents. On Polymarket he sits at 54 cents for the general election win and 68 cents to advance from the primary. If you only look at the price, you see a frontrunner. If you look at what is underneath the price, you see something else entirely.
The headline number
As of April 13, 2026, Steyer leads the Kalshi primary market at 61c — implying a 61% probability of finishing first in the June 2 top-two primary. His nearest rival, Steve Hilton, trades at 33c. Katie Porter sits at 3c. Matt Mahan at 3c. The market says it is Steyer's race to lose.
But the number that matters is not the price. It is the volume.
We built a system that does. The SimpleFunctions Legislation Tracker cross-references every active bill in the 119th Congress against prediction market contracts on Kalshi. Right now it tracks 120 bill-market pairs and 23 Senate confirmation markets — 143 total.
The data tells you things that neither source tells you alone.
What the Cross-Reference Reveals Take the SAVE Act (H.R. 22). It passed the House, got received by the Senate, and Kalshi has a contract on it at 11¢ — implying an 11% probability of becoming law before January 2027. The annualized yield on a Yes position is 1,114%. The market is saying: this bill is almost certainly dead, but the tiny chance it passes is priced cheaply enough that someone is willing to hold it.
Or look at the SNAP restriction market (KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04). The bill was referred to two committees, which in congressional procedure usually means slow death. The market agrees: 14¢, or 14% implied probability. But the IY is 846% — because the resolution date is close enough that even a small probability shift produces an enormous annualized return.
The Trump airport renaming bill (KXBILLS-AIRP) sits at 10¢ with an IY of 1,253%. It was referred to a subcommittee and hasn't moved. The market has correctly priced it as a symbolic gesture with almost zero chance of passage.
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