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I think you're spot in with this. It's the enthusiasts that are constantly trying to move the goalposts towards them and then the general public puts it back where it goes once they catch on.

AGI is what people think of when they hear AI. AI is a bastardized term that people use to either justify, hype and/or sell their research, business or products.

The reason "AI" stops being AI once it becomes mainstream is that people figure out that it's not AI once they see the limitations of whatever the latest iteration is.


Orders of magnitude is an exponential measure.

1*10^n


Yes, but where is the growth? They just said that the age of iceberg is 1000 years or maybe older 100.000.

There is no exponential growth there, just someone not having any clue about the iceberg wanting to sound knowledgeable about the subject.


so then every change can be called exponential

> This chair is 4 years old. Or, maybe 5 years old.

Yeah, exponential growth!!!


How much studying of food do you think was happening before the industrial revolution?

> A few years later and some court battles lost and that answer is now firmly a "no", making me glad I ignored the installer's advice.

Now I'm trying to remember how long ago I got my panels installed...


I think you're missing a third conglomerate that, I think, is actually the most influential.

It's not unlike the crypto space; you've got your true believers, your skeptics and thirdly, your financially motivated hype men. The CEOs if these publicly traded companies and companies that want to be bought are the latter and they are the ones who are behind stories where "the ai lies so we don't turn it off!!!" hype that gets spun into click bait headlines.


I think those CEOs like Altman and Amodei do find it convenient to hype their products like that, but also they believe in computing exponentials and artificial superintelligence etc.

At this point, they all using each other because so much of the new content they are scraping for data is generated.

These models will converge and plateau because the datasets are only going to get worse as more of their content is incestuous.


The default Llama 4 system prompt even instructs it to avoid using various ChatGPT-isms, presumably because they've already scraped so much GPT-generated material that it noticably skews their models output.

I recall that AI trained on AI output over many cycles eventually becomes something akin to noise texture as the output degrades rapidly.

Won’t most AI produced content put out into the public be human curated, thus heavily mitigating this degradation effect? If we’re going to see a full length AI generated movie it seems like humans will be heavily involved, hand holding the output and throwing out the AI’s nonsense.


Some will be heavily curated, by those who care about quality. This is a lot slower to produce, requires some expertise to do right, so there will be far less of it

The vast majority of content will be (is) the fastest and easiest to create - AI slop


Yes indeed some studies were already done on this.

There might be a plateau coming but I’m not sure that will be the reason.

It seems counterintuitive but there is some research suggesting that using synthetic data might actually be productive.


I think there's probably a distinction to be made between deliberate, careful use of synthetic data, as opposed to blindly scraping 1PB of LLM generated SEO spam and force-feeding it into a new model. Maybe the former is useful, but the latter... probably not.

I wonder if this could be practically used for bicycle pedal assist. The ubiquity of gas stations with air available for free (legally required if you go inside and ask) would make refeuling very easy.


Those games are the paper plates of the industry. Disposable crap not meant to last. They're rarely good in the first place because that same mindset leads to bad decisions for gameplay too.

RimWorld, Stardew Valley, Factorio, Terraria, Minecraft are new(ish) games that have already lasted and will last longer.


Can't wait to see tasteful ads on my dashboard.


Who is "they"?

The companies bringing employees back to the office aren't typically the owners of these buildings not are they real estate investors.


No, but many of them may have signed agreements that provided tax breaks for their office location.

Local businesses want humans near them.. that was the agreement, and the government wants that generated tax revenue.

Many of this big orgs are not "maintaining their side of the agreement" - hence pressure to return.. lest tax breaks get challenged.


Those tax breaks offset the price of the office. The price off the office doesn't need a tax break if you don't have an office.

Frankly, the idea that there is any logical financial motivation (aside from an idea of increased productivity) for return to office is far fetched.


Companies don’t lease month to month. Empty space is $$$$ out the door every month.


The parent comment is specifically about the motivation for back to office being real estate prices.

Sunk cost fallacy may be a factor but it's not the same.


If they (the companies) aren't the ones who own the buildings then why are they doing this?

Not rhetorical - from my perspective, it seems like RTO is plainly a money-waster. If you're hybrid or remote and it's working, why take the risk? And, why pour your pockets on things that don't make you money, like office space? Cubicles don't produce your product, people do.

I mean, it just makes so little sense to me. I don't think that means it's a conspiracy. But, clearly, we are missing something that executives are factoring into this decision.


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