It’s been a minute and a half and I don’t see the evidence you can task an agent swarm to produce useful software without your input or review. I’ve seen a few experiments that failed, and I’ve seen manic garbage, but not yet anything useful outside of the agent operators imagination.
Agent swarms are what, a couple of months old? What are you even talking about. Yes, people/humans still drive this stuff, but if you think there isn't useful software out there that can be handily implemented with current gen agents that need very little or no review, then I don't know what to tell you, apart from "you're mistaken". And I say that as someone who uses three tools heavily but has otherwise no stake in them. The copium in this space is real. Everyone is special and irreplaceable, until another step change pushes them out.
The next thing after agent swarms will be swarm colonies and people will go "it's been a month since agentic swarm colonies, give it a month or two". People have been moving the goal posts like that for a couple years now, it's starting to grow stale. This is like self driving cars which were going to be workingin 2016 and replace 80% of drivers by 2017, all over again. People falling for hype instead of admitting that while it appears somewhat useful, nobody has any clue if it's 97% useful or just 3% useful but so far it's looking like the later.
No, I think he’s right. I don’t recall the web being any faster today than it was thirty years ago, download speed excepted. The overall experience is about the same, if not worse, IMO.
Cars have much more power today but generally don’t go much faster because they’re much heavier. Just because downloads are faster doesn’t mean the user experience is faster or more snappy. In fact, it might be worse. Quality doesn’t follow from quantity.
And Iraq was a mostly-functioning country before the US moved in. Iran is a slow-moving train crash in progress, there's no way that the US military will be able to deal with the disintegration that will occur the moment they move in to grab the oil... ah, I mean, restore democracy.
Yes, the risk is: Weeks long now = decade long in a decade.
The key determining factor could be whether any American boots land on the ground or not. Once they do land, there is then no end to the op. I am assuming a simple Venezuelan-style kidnapping of their leader won't work here, or it would have happened already. Fwiw, Iran of course is substantially larger than both Afghanistan and Iraq, so the risk of a prolonged operation is longer.
Yeah, the Russians also though they'd occupy Ukraine and change the regime in Kyiv a matter of weeks. Meanwhile the war has been going on for 4 years.
The US totally botched Afghanistan, Libya and possibly Syria as well. I gueass another civil war is somehow better than rabid religious leaders who hate the US and Israel armed with nukes.
4 years with confirmed Crimea and 20% new land into Russia constitution. Tried and defeated every conventional American weapon. Assisted Iran to let them know how to jam starlink. Oreshnik? Against entire EU and standing much much stronger with 1-2M soldiers trained. Helped NKorea to be significantly stronger to pin down American troops in SKorea? Rise of Brics processing account siphoning 40% of swift volume making it now dark to western analyst? You ask anyone if that is a big lost. And take a look at Ukraine 2 generation of men gone especially the fertile one. This setup for Ukraine war 2 to finish the job 1-2 decades down the road (read how Chechen got tamed). American did that with Iraq 1 and Iraq 2 wars. I dont even know what is the outcome. While Americans drilling oil in Syria, China is deploying Thorium reactors right now. Meanwhile Americans is planning bigger sitting duck fleets that can wipe out by multiple Oreshnick that cost a few million dollars. The golden duck cost? Estimated 22B.
The US is increasingly emulating Russia in all the bad ways. I guess it won't be long before the state starts killing more political opponents here too.
I’m exponentially surprised every day they don’t attack. That means they’re putting a little thought into this. I wasn’t reading the news in 2003, but they seemed so hurried.
Ironically, this time, time would have been of the essence to save the protesters who died. Maybe the US noticed all their potential supporters were rapted and killed.
In 2003, Bush first tried gathering support for invasion in Sept 2002 at the UN. Congress granted authority for use of military force in October, and the troop build up started. Colin Powell tried one more major push for UN support in Jan 2002. The invasion was in March 2003.
That was the public facing attempts to gather support. Internally within the administration, they started working on invasion plans within a few months of 9/11. These plans continued to iterate up to being more or less locked in and approved (by Bush) in Jan 2003.
Glad to see that tens of thousands of people being murdered for demanding the freedom to uncover their hair and criticise governments leaving them without water is only interesting enough to you for you to say that they don’t need you to help them. Disgusting human being that you are
I'd like to see Waymo have a few of their Drivers do some sim racing training and then compete in some live events. It wouldn't matter much to me if they were fast at all, I'd like to see them go into the rookie classes in various games and see how they avoid crashes from inexperienced players. I believe that it would be the ultimate "shitty drivers vs. AI" test.
Racing and street driving are completely different. Racing involves detailed knowledge of vehicle dynamics and grip. Street driving is mainly obstacle recognition and avoidance. No waymo ever operates anywhere close to the limit of grip, which is where you are all the time when racing.
I live on an island and my first priority after getting a full time job again is to buy solar and storage good for a few days of my homes usage. The cost of energy is increasing here and I don’t see it ever going down since we’re still using oil for the most part. I plan to build a little wood workshop shed in my yard and cover it with solar panels and put some batteries in it. I should only need about 30 kWh of storage to cover three days use, and maybe 2 or 3 kW of panels for daily use and recharging the batteries; except for the EV, which I normally charge once a week but I can just start plugging in during the day instead. With that setup I can keep connected to the grid and eventually see if I can go off grid after a few years, or possibly add more solar and storage later if I find the first phase wasn’t enough.
However, that’s only possible because I have money and knowledge; most people don’t have that and so as a whole we’re kind of screwed here. Costs will continue to rise while not enough renewables are installed, usually on individual homes which only helps those individuals.
I have a friend in the Bahamas who had setup his entire home up for solar and even to reclaim water from the roof. The builders messed up the reclaim water system I forgot the reason but he mentioned he cannot drink the water whatsoever because of the screw up, so he has to eventually rework all of that, but in terms of power he is better off than most since he is setup for it with batteries and everything.
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