>Linux is no longer a desktop threat. A few years back, it looked like Linux might carve out a niche on low-end, low-priced netbooks. But the iPad took care of that hardware category, and this year Microsoft confidently eliminated Linux from the list of competitors to the Windows operating system ... (On the server side, of course, Microsoft continues to acknowledge that Unix and Linux are strong competitors.)
(in other words it wasn't his prediction - Microsoft removed Linux from the list of threats to their desktop business).
In the big multi national corporations that I am involved with, there has been a dramatic shift away from desktops running Windows, to thin clients running Linux that connect to Windows virtual machines. The servers these virtual machines run on are also Linux. The Windows virtual machines exist so that users can run Microsoft's office products and Outlook, and legacy applications made for Windows. The legacy applications are generally being replaced with on-line/cloud based applications, or multi platform applications. In this respect, Linux has been neutralised in the way that Microsoft can still extract tax for the desktop environment for a while, but only a while.
Business desktops? Or? My parents run Android (it is Linux despite what MS thinks :) desktops; much easier to use. My business friends use bring-yourself iPads and Macbooks. I have to think hard to find someone who uses Windows. Maybe it's different in the US, but even in the village where I live where everyone is very non-tech and mostly poor, everyone uses Android or Ubuntu (because it's free, not because it's easier to use in this case) on their computers, phones and tablets. The simple reality now is (and that's why I think Windows 8 is a good idea but not radical enough) that Android and iOS are significantly easier to use for non-geek people. Windows is just hard; I am a programmer and gadget geek; when I sit behind Windows to compile for WP7 it always takes me a lot of time to find things and work around it's annoying interface. I can only imagine what people who do not have a tech background think about it.
A simple example was a large migration I did for PwC.com in my country; that was a real eye-opener for me and it took this long (this was 10 years ago) to be an eye-opener for MS themselves. I interviewed people in that company and they all said the same thing;
me: How do you start your word processor?
employee: I click on Start, then 7 up (All Programs), then 3 down
If the migration would MOVE word in a different place, people would need a course to know where to find it, and that's expensive and annoying for so many people. It came out the interview that it was of vital operating importance to leave all software in the same place in the start menu; the people didn't actually READ words as they simply didn't understand the concept.
A huge button saying WORD PROCESSOR among a few program they actually USE would have helped much, so like iOS/Android/WP7-8 have...
Another thing that came from the interviews (and from my experience with non technical people as well); people in Windows ONLY have one window open, fullscreen. Android/iOS/WP7-8. Not Windows <= 7; non tech people find the actual window concept confusing and annoying, so they just close the current window when they want to do something else.
Android uses the Linux kernel as glue between the hardware and Android userland; it's otherwise totally separate from GNU/Linux. Calling Android a Linux is misleading.
What world is this man living in? One where servers don't count, only direct consumer products?