Conventional oil actually peaked around 2005–2006, but the shale oil revolution in the U.S. and technological advances have certainly postponed peak oil itself.
Here comes the kicker, though: we obviously extracted the easy-to-access resources first. While there may be counterexamples, looking at ore grades makes it clear that this is not particular to oil.
What happens next is that the economics of the wells are getting worse, which means we need a higher oil price for them to be viable. This also results in a lower energy return on energy invested (EROI), which reduces the surplus energy available to transform our environment. Consequently, this implies slower growth in the economy. Which I think is pretty obvious in the west and would explain the explosion of debt.
I think your analysis is US-centric. I don't think non-shale oil has peaked yet globally.
What you say about the economics getting worse and lower EROI may be true. It certainly seems like common sense. There are some counter-examples though.
The inflation adjusted cost of extracting oil from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada has actually decreased over time, not increased.
But generally I'd expect increasing cost of extraction to be the norm.
“Global Yield Curve Inverts in Signal a Recession Is Brewing…. Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.
“The average yield on sovereign debt maturing in 10 years or more has fallen below that of securities due in one-to-three years… That has never happened before based on data going back to the beginning of the millennium.
“The inversion of the yield curve is typically seen to herald a recession, as investors switch money to longer-term bonds due to pessimism over the economic outlook. Those fears are growing as policymakers around the world pledge further monetary tightening to tame rising consumer prices.
““Central bankers paralyzed by inflation fears will keep cash rates anchored in the restrictive zone for longer,” said Prashant Newnaha, a rates strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Singapore.”
Here comes the kicker, though: we obviously extracted the easy-to-access resources first. While there may be counterexamples, looking at ore grades makes it clear that this is not particular to oil.
What happens next is that the economics of the wells are getting worse, which means we need a higher oil price for them to be viable. This also results in a lower energy return on energy invested (EROI), which reduces the surplus energy available to transform our environment. Consequently, this implies slower growth in the economy. Which I think is pretty obvious in the west and would explain the explosion of debt.
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