Is it really seen as “the real risk” if it is something the current elected president very explicitly said for decades he wants to do? He does want USD to go down in value. He said it, repeatedly, openly. He made very clear why he went after Powell (that he himself reappointed).
It’s more, exactly what we should expect than a risk no?
If you want to understand the goal of the administration, read Stephan Miran's 2024 paper titled "A user's guide to restructuring the global trading system" (the author is the current chairs of "Council Economic Advisers", the paper is casually called Mar-a-lago accord...):
The TL;DR is something like: use overvalued due to reserve status => devalue 40% via tariffs + threatening to withdraw military protection from allies who don't comply
You can find more sources and videos with fairly basic googling, such as multiple interviews from the 90s (or 80s?) with Larry king, Oprah, and way more, none of that is hidden
Cannot you then be charged for interfering with the investigation or deleting evidences? It’s not like law enforcement will be “damn, we’ve been outsmarted, let’s move on”
(To be clear I’m not in support of anything close to the current state of affairs and wish we had way stronger privacy rights even in the case of police investigations)
My fingerprints regularly fail to get recognized, across multiple scanners. If you can be charged for doing it "accidentally on purpose", then I can be charged for doing it even if I were innocent.
A challenge: can you write down a definition of thinking that supports this claim? And then, how is that definition different from what someone who wasn't explicitly trying to exclude LLM-based AI might give?
It’s a philosophical question, and I personally have very little interest in philosophing. LLMs are technically limited to what is in their training dataset
An LLM cannot create something new. It is limited to its training set. That’s a technical limitation. I’m surprised to see people on HN being confused by the technology…
Until we have world models, that is exactly what they are. They literally only understand text, and what text is likely given previous text. They are very good at this, because we've given it a metric ton of training data. Everything is "what does a response to this look like?"
This limitation is exactly why "reasoning models" work so well: if the "thinking" step is not persisted to text, it does not exist, and the LLM cannot act on it.
Text comes in, text goes out, but there's a lot of complexity in the middle. It's not a "world model", but there's definitely modeling of the world going on inside.
There is zero modeling of the world going on inside, for the very simple reason that it has never seen the world. It's only been given text, which means it has no idea why that text was written. This is the fundamental limitation of all LLMs: they are only trained on text that humans have written after processing the world. You can't "uncompress" the text to get back what the world state was to understand what led to it being written.
I don't see why only understanding text is completely associated with 'schastic-parrot'-ness. There are blind-deaf people around (mostly interacting through reading braille I think) which are definitely not stochastic parrots.
Moreover, they do have a little bit of Reinforcement Learning on top of reproducing their training corpus.
I believe there has to be some even if very primitive form of thinking (and something like creativity even) even to do the usual (non-RL, supervised) LLMs job of text continuation.
The most problematic thing is humans tend to abhor middle grounds. Either it thinks or it doesn't. Either it's an unthinking dead machine, a s.p., or human-like AGI. The reality is probably in between (maybe still more on the side of s.p. s, definitely with some genuine intelligence, but with some unknown, probably small, sentience as of yet). Reminder that sentience and not intelligence is what should give it rights.
Because blind-deaf people interact with the world directly. LLMs do not, cannot, and have never seen the actual world. A better analogy would be a blind-deaf person born in Plato's Cave, reading text all day. They have no idea why these things were written, or what they actually represent.
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