Yeah, trying to beat the market on actually predicting will get you pretty lame returns. Probably do better in non zero sum games like the stock market. At least there you get the benefit of the market always going up eventually.
No, the best way to win on Polymarket is purely by insider trading. Which is why it's a useful thing to watch. Insider news..
That said, the definition of 'insider trading' is always tricky. At what point does it become insider? Some things people call insider others just call clever detective work.
It's not useful to watch, almost by definition. If you're an insider obviously you want to sit on the information as long as possible and make a big bet just before it will be revealed. For example: the account in TFA whose bet was 71 minutes before the first news article about the attacks.
So how useful is it really to see a big bet and know that probably the thing in question will happen in the next hour?
The only kind of use case I can see for these markets is what another commenter mentioned, as a kind of strange insurance by betting against what you hope will happen. But even then, the finicky rules and untrustworthiness of the Polymarket admins make them much less reliable than a traditional insurance policy...
> Yeah, trying to beat the market on actually predicting will get you pretty lame returns
That maybe true in a normal world, but we left normalcy in this world a couple of administrations ago. I absolutely would not put it past a member of this admin to be keeping an eye on things like this to suggest it would be better to start the attack on specific day just to pad the coffers. Any other admin, and I'd say that would be an insane line of thought, but it is this admin.
I'd say it's more a kowtow to his voters and democracy. Whatever you think of him, he was democratically elected. Do remember to show up this November, though, and remind all your friends..
The president can not unilaterally rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War without approval from congress. Just declaring it so is not democracy. Those that call it the Department of War are enablers.
There is a significant risk of uncertainty in all of this, the most damaging aspect really. If AI improves, and it is threatening to, then growth in SaaS may decline to a point where investing in it needs to be reconsidered.
The problem is, nobody knows how much and how fast AI will improve or how much it will cost if it does.
That uncertainty alone is very problematic and I think is being underestimated in terms of its impact on everything it can potentially touch.
For now though, I've seen a wall form in benchmarks like swe-rebench and swebench pro. Greenfield is expanding, but maintenance is still a problem.
I think AI needs to get much better at maintenance before serious companies can choose build over buy for anything but the most trivial apps.
A market doesn't have to shrink all that much before there's a collapse. Generally it's quite gradual, and then very sudden. There's a tipping point where a market cannot sustain a public company and their structural overhead and have declining revenue. Investors don't want to invest in shrinking markets because it's a guaranteed way to lose money. This leads to share price collapse and the sudden rapid destruction of market incumbents.
Advanced math solving, as the results indicate. Informal proof reasoning is advancing faster than formal proof reasoning because the latter is slow and compute intensive.
I suspect it's also because there isn't a lot of data to train on.
Ok I guess I could have told you that. What I really meant is that in the future where LLMs are doing new math (which I'm skeptical of, but I digress) I would not trust any of it unless it was formally verified.
No, the best way to win on Polymarket is purely by insider trading. Which is why it's a useful thing to watch. Insider news..
That said, the definition of 'insider trading' is always tricky. At what point does it become insider? Some things people call insider others just call clever detective work.
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