I'm british so I apprecitate this condition, we need to talk down, we need to down play. An American will celebrate an LLM surprising them, a brit will be disappointed - until an LLM suprises by failing and then we'll be delighted.
There's a lot of hand wringing about how far wrong LLMs can go, but can we be serious for a second, if you're running <whatever the name is now>, you're tech savvy and bear the consequences. This isn't simple child abuse like teenage girls on facebook.
There is a reason people are buying mac minis for this and it's cool. We really need to be more excited by opportunity, not threatened.
Thanks for this, it's really important to reflect the fact that aside from anything else, the common law tradition practiced in most anglophone countries is fundamentally at odds with a lot of European countries.
Galloway and Swisher have been speculating about this (as well as a Tesla roll up) for a while. It makes tonnes of sense from Musk's perspective- he's got this behemoth monopoly that'll be worth a trillion on the stock market, meanwhile he's got xAI and Twitter which are both sub-scale money losers. It's easiest way to bail out his bad bets (and keep his investors sweet). The only question is whether eventually Tesla joins the party, it makes the most sense for xAI and Tesla to be joined, but I just don't see how that can happen. The benefit of xAI and x.com is that they were private so there weren't meme stock valuations to compete with, the investors would take a resonable payout know, safe in the knowledge SpaceX will IPO to a meme stock valuation. Tesla's valuation has to return to earth before SpaceX can bail it out and by that point it'll be like catching a falling knife.
Because Elon Musk owns a space company not a shipping company. If Elon Musk happened to own a tonne of boats sure as hell sea-steading data centres would be the future. But he doens't, so it's AAAAIIIII IIIIIN SPPPPPAAAAAAAACE.
I think you're totally wrong on this. Tesla didn't waste the first mover advantage. They benefitted from it whilst it existed, but Electric vehicles turned into a commodity, which was entirely expected and there's no moat.
You've explained yourself why it would be untenable for Musk to pursue becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world - if he succeeded in that goal... he would have succeded in shrinking the value of the company significantly.
It's pure logic that Tesla has to pursue bets that would justify billion dollar valuations and being a car company isn't that.
Tesla's original "secret plan" (published on their website) was to become a commodity car manufacturer faster than electric cars became a commodity. Such that the other manufacturers would find them selling obsolete vehicles and Tesla just becomes the new General Motors.
This was the justification for their stock price for quite a few years: "It's logical that Tesla is worth more than all other automakers combined because it will soon be the only automaker."
But now Tesla is way behind on self driving (which was oversold by the whole industry tbh). So what's their new plan? Now they're no longer a car company and will make robots!
> It's pure logic that Tesla has to pursue bets that would justify billion dollar valuations and being a car company isn't that.
But it's make-believe. Tesla is a car manufacturer. They haven't shipped anything else other than cars. And they even suck at making cars these days. Tesla Semi? All but dead. The new roadster? Also dead. Full Self Driving? Doesn't exist. Robotaxis? Even if they got them to work, at this point the brand is too toxic for widespread adoption of those.
They could have persisted at being a disruptive car manufacturer and still held a several hundred billion dollar valuation. Now they are a very mediocre car manufacturer, with their only actual success being conning everyone into believing that they are a bleeding-edge tech company so their $1.5Bn valuation seems justified.
What would you define as better? I rent various EVs regularly, and I'm still yet to find something that beats it on performance, range and price. That's all before comfort and features, which again most seem to lack. There are a couple pretty close to Tesla, but nothing that clearly beats it that I've driven.
In the US market, the Hyundai Ioniq 6 has better build quality, identical range in real world conditions, a ton of comfort, and no threat that their CEO will go off his meds and take away your driving assist features unless you pay a ~~ransom~~ subscription fee.
Tesla's greatest strength is/was that they did almost everything inhouse. The reason all the other manufacturers struggle to do basic things like dog mode is because they are almost all relying on the supply chain for everything. No infotainment/HVAC supplier has a dog mode so it doesn't exist.
The obvious downside to that is that when Tesla cuts back on R&D, it becomes painfully obvious to the car owners. I'm not expecting anything like dog mode to show up ever again.
I know it’s popular to hate on Elon and therefore Tesla, but you need to be accurate when doing so. They’re still chipping away.
> Tesla Semi?All but dead.
They’ve been running a pilot all this time, and the factory in Nevada to mass produce them is on schedule. Production ramp is second half of this year.
The factory is ginormous.
> The new roadster? Also dead.
Elon said yesterday the unveil is in April “hopefully”
> Full Self Driving? Doesn't exist. Robotaxis?
Cars are driving passengers around Austin now with nobody in either front seat.
It takes automakers almost a decade to bring a new vehicle online, Elon just does it all publicly while everyone else doesn’t take the wraps off until the final 6 months.
Obviously everything is way behind elons hype timelines, but I do still think it’s all coming.
Fred Lambert at Electrek has become an unreliable reporter on Tesla. I don't know where his bias stems from, but it's unmistakeable.
Lambert claims David Moss couldn't find a Robotaxi ride without a safety driver. True enough, there aren't a lot of them on the road. That doesn't mean they don't exist or were "pulled back."
Here's Moss's latest tweet on the subject: "ANOTHER UNSUPERVISED:
2 in a row now here in Austin, TX of Tesla Robotaxi’s completely autonomous without chase cars.
You can see 2 cars in the clip with no one in it & anyone can book it!
Anyone who owns a tesla vehicle with "full self driving" is probably chuckling to themselves about Tesla ever making useful general purpose robots any time soon. Disclaimer, I own two tesla's with FSD and it's far from "full" or "self". I am very sceptical of robotaxis unless they have the appropriate sensors & SW (e.g. Waymo) which Elon has not done.
Finally, I know lots of people who own cars, but none who own robots. Many friends will not have Alexa in their homes due to privacy concerns. How many people will trust Elon to have a robot in their homes and assume he's being benign and safe with your personal data?
Also, what's the first billion dollar market for humanoid robots?
Industry? "lights-out manufacturing" exists already, and doesn't require humanoid robots.
Hyundai and BYD (among others) say they're going to put humanoid robots in their factories (2). They won't be Tesla robots. Is this really such a huge use?
Where I live, wash/dry/fold service costs ~$3/lb including pickup & delivery, so depending on how many clothes you wear in a week you'd be looking at 5-10 years before that robot even starts to pay for itself - without even accounting for the cost of the laundry machines it'll need to use or the water and power to run them. Laundry machines are expected to last 10-15 years; will the robot last so long?
Pure logic would dictate that Tesla has a market cap of around $5B. It's actually fraudulent that it's not, and for some reason the SEC allows Musk to lie on every earnings call without repercussion.
A 5B market cap would imply a P/E ratio of 1.3 and a P/FCF ratio of 0.8, which essentially would be saying “this business is only worth approximately what it made last year”. The corresponding multiples for other auto makers are typically in the high single digits. Even if you believed Tesla’s whole business would collapse tomorrow (i.e. revenue goes to zero) book value is ~83B and net cash is ~29B.
VW just closed a very small plant (165k cars in 24 years) in Germany, the one in Dresden. The largest ones are probably Wolfsburg and Emden, these are running. VW is in trouble, not in terminal decline.
Brand value is definitely a moat. Not the deepest of moats, but it is a moat nonetheless.
> It's pure logic that Tesla has to pursue bets that would justify billion dollar valuations and being a car company isn't that.
Tesla is valued as if it is a tech company with a car business as a side gig. Its balance sheet is a car business, and I'm not even sure it spends enough on tech to have tech qualify as a side gig. And the other tech avenues it has been pursuing (autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots) are areas that other people have been doing for better and longer. Hell, Honda had autonomous (not tele-operated) humanoid robots working 20 years ago.
To be honest, at this point, I mostly consider the other bets that Tesla is pursing are just passion projects to keep the stock price artificially high. Were Tesla more realistically valued, it would lose probably 90% or more of its value, and Musk would be a much poorer man.
If you do not want to run a car company, maybe do not... run a car company? Get an ice cream truck.
It absolutely makes no sense to convert a car manufacturer into an AI company. Or a robotics company after you have build CAR FACTORIES around the planet.
If you as a CEO don't like the business you are running for your shareholders, it is time to get a new CEO that does. There still are managers that really like running car companies.
I don't get the feeling that BYD management is bored about the EV business...
Everything tends toward commodification in a hyper-competitive, hyper-connected world. The only variable is time... and this "time" keeps shrinking.
As commodification accelerates, consolidation follows. In the current landscape, where private capital and state power are deeply entangled under the banner of national security, this consolidation no longer stays economic. It becomes geopolitical.
The end result... it translates to not just corporate monopolies, but geo-monopolies... enforced not by markets alone, but by coercion, conflict, and control over resources.
> It's pure logic that Tesla has to pursue bets that would justify billion dollar valuations and being a car company isn't that.
Isn't this in reply to a post (or was that another reply just below it?) about how other, "traditional", car companies are valued at 55, 60, 80, and 280 billion dollars...? Seems being a car company and having a billion dollar valuation isn't all that incompatible.
Tesla had a very good computer, they were learning how to put a car around it.
Traditional manufacturers (German mostly) had good or very good cars, but they sucked at the computer stuff.
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And unknown to all, the Chinese learned how to make good cars with good computers built in as those two were trying to achiever their respective goals.
It's not that EVs are a commodity. Competition and speculative production capacity buildouts combined with lower than expected consumer demand made the market less profitable.
> a resource, that specifically has full or substantial fungibility: that is, the market treats instances of the good as equivalent or nearly so with no regard to who produced them
Uhh.. not sure where you live or what your local / regional market is like. I'm in the United States, where what car you drive is a really big decision. Many people share on social media what car they bought, and tell people around them about the new car they bought. I've yet to witness a situation where someone said "I bought an electric car" and the response was something like "Why are you telling me you bought toilet paper?" (Even toilet paper has brand names and advertising.)
That isn't to say that the car market hasn't shifted over time.
Cars began as "engine to move wheels plus a few other things" and evolved so that the engine seemed less of the central reason why you bought a specific vehicle. An electric powertrain does take things a bit further, in that most EV buyers know very little about the motors, though they certainly know a thing or two about the battery.
Batteries are generally a commodity at smaller scales, but in a car, they matter significantly. Still, brand matters, too. Ask Lucid or Rivian or Porsche how they sell their electric cars for $70K - $160K. How is it that a commodity available to purchase for ~$30K can be sold for $130K additional? (That's not how commodities work.)
No, electric cars are not a commodity. It's just a difficult market with a lot of players, and a broad market with constantly evolving tastes. Ask Toyota why they have half a dozen different SUV models. Or why the Ford F-150 comes in 200 configurations. (That's not how commodities work!)
Just because the gasoline-burning engine was replaced with electric motors and batteries, the car didn't turn into a commodity overnight. I'm open to counterarguments and persuasion to the contrary.
I think this article doesn't really engage with why TSMC is in the position it is in. It is in the position it's in due to 2 key reasons. The first is scale, in order to make the R&D worth it you need to sell a hell of a lot of chips. So you need scale in order for the economics to work. One of the things a lot of people point to in the downfall of Intel is they missed mobile and that just cut the legs out of their scale.
The second reason is the opposite though. The industry is cyclical. If you invest a tonne now, and that investment comes to fruition just as you hit the bottom of a cycle you're just going to go bankrupt. You'll have a tonne of capacity, no demand and businesses are designed to go bankrupt in exactly that way. You only need a small surplus of demand to skyrocket prices, and you only need a small deficit of demand to turn into a fire sale.
Let's put it this way - Ben points at a graph and says "Look, here's where ChatGPT got released - and the YoY CapEx went down!". Yes, that is exactly the cyclical nature. It takes a long term to sort the logistics for this industry, so if you see demand in early 2023, that's going to turn into CapEx in 2025 - and it did, a 35% increase in CapEx YoY is yuuuge.
The problem is that if you say competition is the answer what you're really saying is you want one player in the industry to chase a pro-cyclical demand cycle and that will blow them up. The result of this strategy is just to sacrifice the leading players each cycle.
The logical answer is actually, if Google wants TSMC to push CapEx into a bubble, Google should under-write it. Judge where you expect demand to be and hand over cash to buy the chips now. TSMC will build it. If you guarantee revenue in 2029, TSMC will absolutely guarantee you capacity. But Google doesn't beleive it, and they certainly won't pay up front for it. No, what you'll get is special purpose vehicles that look a lot like the big tech companies guaranteeing projects - in a way that doesn't show up on their balance sheets now - but turn out not to be guarantees if it turns sideways. And TSMC can't afford that counter party risk.
>I wondered, “Who is this feature even for? Who will use it?” No one on my team knew.
I think there's another key here - Don't assume someone else knows something. If you don't know why something is done some way, find out who does and make sure they do. I've been in so many situations where the organization gets complex - person A is loaned over here or person B is working on project X because team Y needed feature Z. So frequently you'll find out that core assumptions have been made because everyone involved was only half-involved and either kind of assumed someone else was taking care of it, or (more frequently) knows the assumption is wrong but is choosing not to say so for political reasons.
When I was in the Marines, we had a rule of thumb that every Marine needed to know their own mission and the mission of units two or three echelons above them. So individual Marines needed to know their mission, their platoon's mission and their company's mission. Company commanders needed to know their mission, their battalion's mission and the division's mission. More specifics for echelons closer to you.
This is complicated by the fact that Marines deploy as MEUs, MEBs and MEFs [1] which aren't "pure" echelons, but it's a rule of thumb and guiding principle more than a hard and fast requirement.
I've ALWAYS been annoyed by engineering organizations that don't think developers at the leaf nodes of the org chart need to know what's going on. Devs may not do anything with the info, but letting people in on what's happening seems to send the message that "management thinks you're important enough to hear what we're working on" and every now and again, individual devs need to make decisions that depend on these more abstract / higher-level goals.
My dad is a retired Marine and I learned several things from the NCO system and Marines in general: good leaders (EM/Sergeant) will generally never ask you something they cannot also do (implies they are your peer, even if they are not), and Marine Corps manuals are able to take anyone who can read and make them operate technical things. Their manuals are written in a very direct stepwise way to get people up to speed in doing whatever task they are assigned which I learned early on is just plain good documentation.
Servant leadership works really well when you have high agency individuals, and can grow high agency individuals. I have definitely been on the other side of that with control freak machiavellian / nearly adversarial leaders as well.
<Servant leadership works really well when you have high agency individuals, and can grow high agency individuals. I have definitely been on the other side of that with control freak Machiavellian / nearly adversarial leaders as well.>
This. Every time I've lead people, IF they were already or were able to become high agency, we were efficient and capable. Control freak managers were usually guilty of what they obsessed over before they became managers. Good workers always leave bad managers in time, which always hurts the company.
As a former Naval Flight Officer, it's somewhat ironic how the private sector is more "sir, yes sir" command and control than the military ever was, and they're the ones who stereotype servicemembers for being drones who can only follow orders.
The other thing I've seen incredibly less of in software than in uniform is a bias for action at all levels. Combined with understanding the mission, a mentality that "in the absence of being told what to do, I will act." Better to ask forgiveness than permission, etc. etc. So many people in the private sector just wait for the boss to push them around like chess pieces, and I can't understand how they're OK living like that.
When my boss (non prior service) at Amazon found out I was prior service he said "I want to run my group like a military unit." Without thinking I blurted out "what? you want to spend 80% of your budget on training?"
> So many people in the private sector just wait for the boss to push them around like chess pieces, and I can't understand how they're OK living like that.
I think a lot times, office workers will be reprimanded for taking action if they don't realize their chain of command are not supportive. Have this happen a couple of times, and you will quickly move into this mode of "I'm not going to do anything I'm not told to do." I can recall more than one former company where taking the initiative to perform some action independently was very risky to your career there.
Because every time I've done something of my own initiative, one of three things happens:
1/ I'm punished or reprimanded for doing something that my time wasn't explicitly scheduled for. This comes from managers.
2/ Nobody cares and I'm now further behind on the things I committed to.
3/ People care, are happy I took the initiative, but I'm not materially rewarded in any way. At worst, I'm given more work.
In all cases I am no better off. I just don't do it anymore. Employers don't want employee autonomy, so they don't get employee autonomy. Employers only want to give paychecks not profits, so they get employees who only want paychecks.
I sympathize with keeping one's mouth shut for political reasons. Having a boss who angrily shouts at anyone who dared use their own brain and offer an idea, I learned to keep my mouth firmly shut even if i saw countless problems coming down the road.
It's totally understandable, but it would have been good to have been given a heads up - I'm totally new at the company (new to the industry), assume one of these people knows what they're doing. In the end I got a new boss and convinced him to take a different approach once the first approach failed, but I would not have blamed my new boss for just binning the entire project and getting rid of me.
It is one thing to do that while you have that boss, but something completely different to keep acting that way even when you have a different boss. The more people you have on a team who keep their mouths shut, the less effective it will be.
There's a lot of hand wringing about how far wrong LLMs can go, but can we be serious for a second, if you're running <whatever the name is now>, you're tech savvy and bear the consequences. This isn't simple child abuse like teenage girls on facebook.
There is a reason people are buying mac minis for this and it's cool. We really need to be more excited by opportunity, not threatened.
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