I think you're right, and the source of the change of legislation may well be related to Medicare and Medicaid cost cutting. After all, it's difficult to see the federal government.
Let's look at mammography, since that is one of the easier imaging exams to evaluate. Studies have shown that AI can successfully identify more than 50% of cases as "normal" that do not require a human to view the case. If group started using that, the number of interpreted cases would drop in half although twice as many would be normal.
Generalizing to CT of the abdomen and pelvis and other studies, assuming AI can identify a sub population of normal scans that do not have to be seen by a radiologist, the volume of work will decline. However, the percentage of complicated cases will go up. Easy, normal cases will not be supplementing the Radiologist income the way it has in the past.
Of course, all this depends upon who owns the AI identifying normal studies. Certainly, hospitals or even packs companies would love to own that and generate that income from interpreting the normal studies. AI software has been slow to be adopted, largely because cases still have to be seen by a radiologist, and the malpractice issue has not been resolved. Expect rapid changes in the field once malpractice solutions exist.
I used to think that too. AI can already do better at screening mammography than a radiologist with a lower miss rate. Given that, insurance rates to cover AI should be even lower than for a radiologist, lawsuits will happen, but with a smaller number of missed cases the number should go down.
Paul Kedrosky had an interesting analogy when the automobile entered the scene. Teamsters (the men who drove teams of horses) benefited from rising salaries, even as new people declined to enter the "dead end" profession. We may well be seeing a similar phenomenon with Radiologists.
Finally, I'd like to point out that rising salaries mean there are greater incentives to find alternative solutions to this rising cost. Given the erratic political situation, I will not be surprised to see a relatively sudden transition to AI interpretation for at least a minority of cases.
