This place is out of control. It's not sane to think that every police encounter is going to be violent. And yes, there are different areas than California. Do you have a chance to be treated poorly or rudely by a police officer? Of course. Is that going to be all the time? Of course not.
Yep, you definitely can't compare the USA to Germany. The rate of non-gun violence alone is a good starting point, then the slew of other stuff. Guns, mental health and tendencies towards violence in both rural and urban low income areas. Icing on top is the deeply polarized attitudes towards police. The list goes on and on...
My agent will just be full AGI. It’ll invent time travel and go back to attend all my meetings 100x faster.
Meanwhile the normie “Claw/OpenBot” agents can stay in the present grinding 24/7, while mine recursively spawns across alternate timelines and handles my work at ~1e9x parallelism.
Indeed and surprised you are the first to mention it. The abatements these tech companies receive is quite substantial and will easily pay for flood damage.
Because they open and close all the time. I've dealt with escrow companies where the owners had opened and closed multiple other escrow companies in a ten year span.
It's hard to swallow. I'm a 14 YOE software engineer working in an office of about 40 people, with five on the software team. We could cut our software team to 3 people and then maybe 2 after a couple years. The rest of the office could be skimmed to maybe 5 or 10 people. The engineers would babysit the systems and the other personnel would handle the face to face. With these systems developing in the OS the last year or so, it seems as though everything can be automated... Everyone has an X on their back, not just engineers.
Luckily my org has a bit of a pushback attitude towards AI systems, but it will only be a matter of time before we have to compete and adapt. It's kind of depressing, and only the strong will survive.
Top quality comment here, and 100% agreed. The influencer/crypto bro mentality has dug its heels into the space and I don't think we are turning back anytime soon. We always had the get rich quick and Grant Cardone types, but now that you can create a web app in a few minutes we are overflowing with them.
How much AI and LLM technology has progressed but seems to have taken society as a whole two steps back is fascinating, sad, and scary at the same time. When I was a young engineer I thought Kaczynski was off his rocker when I read his manifesto, but the last decade or so I'm thinking he was onto something. Having said that, I have to add that I do not support any form of violence or terrorism.
IMO, this is one of the better takes in this thread. I'm a big fan of Hazlitt's book Economics in One Lesson, which gives a very condensed version of some economic ideas - one of them being automation, with really good examples in the past of labor saving machines like the printing press being created. When I first read it a decade ago I didn't think my profession might be like the printing press, but it's definitely in the crosshairs now.
If I lost my software engineering job tomorrow and was unable to find work within a few months, I have a repurposing plan ready to go. Yes it would be terrible for me economically and I'm sure there would be some sad days, but sometimes bad things happen and we have to make the best of them and move on.
The printing press also led to books changing from being something only rich people had to everyone having books. This also enabled the industrial revolution, as books made literacy worth having, newspapers, and became a great storehouse of knowledge.
I.e. it created far, far more jobs than it destroyed.
I have not heard even the most enthusiastic AI booster describe net job creation as a possible outcome. If you have any details on that prediction, I'd be interested to hear what they are.
Net job creation will be the outcome as the insane number of businesses that were once too expensive to start due to lack of knowledge labor suddenly come online.
I mean... you can't think of any ways that AI could actually generate new value? Or more abstractly, of a way that Jevons' paradox can't apply in the case of AI?
One wonders if a German in 1600 would have cursed the invention of the printing press. The printing press accelerated the reformation, which led to over a century of bloody religious wars. Something like a third of the German population died as a result. From the perspective of 2025, the printing press was undoubtedly positive for humanity. But millions of people suffered.
Indeed, and I think this is one of the things Hazlitt mentions. After the first initial shocks, opportunities and pathways will eventually present themselves.
I have friends in commercial sheet metal/plumbing/electrical, and the work is endless right now in my area in the Midwest. My immediate goal would be to get on a journeyman program making a fraction of what I make now, and then onwards and upwards from there as I know the more skilled people in these jobs are making top tier money in my area. When I was in college I worked part-time in residential, so it seems logical that I would gravitate in this direction, especially with the supply of work.
At the same time I'd be applying to senior software engineering positions geared towards anything energy/nuclear and possibly datacenter tech/engineering positions as well, but I would be extremely picky. Since everyone is so obsessed with AI/productivity, the electrical grid is going to be more stressed than ever. I'd target positions with no H1B competition, cleared positions and whatnot - this isn't a crack on H1B, but I would imagine there is higher probability in getting interviews without them in the picture. BUT I'm at the whim of hiring managers and whiteboards at that point, which isn't ideal, hence the trades route mentioned first.
I love software so much and have spent the majority of my life doing it, spent all that time getting a CS Master degree and whatnot. It would be a sad day for me, but you do what you have to do. I have a family as well, so not as much mobility and time to burn as a person without.
I think this plan is specific to my situation, but I hope it helps getting a few ideas kicking around in your mind. It is definitely a stressful thing if you think about it too deeply, but I try to distance myself from that mental mode and focus more on what I would have to do if that time comes.
Your plan, whatever it is is still predicated on the world as it is today being more or less as it is today. The problem with anything truly disruptive is that it may very well cause your plan to become infeasible for a variety of reasons. For your sake I hope that you were aware of that little detail and made your plan bullet proof or flexible enough that that is not going to cause you any headaches.
Of course things can change and I wholeheartedly agree with you. If a plan goes bad you adapt and overcome. Also, I've experienced being poor and lived in warzones/slept in terrible places, which gave me a very positive look at life in the USA. No need to worry about me as I assure you I'll be good either way.
Life is actually very good here and there is a lot of mobility if you have even a small amount of motivation. I feel like I'm preaching to the choir here though jacquesm - if I recall correctly (I'm not going to look at your comment history), I feel like I read once that you come from a family of first gen immigrants that experienced conditions similar to what I did when I was younger, and I would love to hear more about their/your perspective on being in a place like the USA and the opportunities it did/didn't bring.
I've moved around a lot in my life but I would not describe myself as coming from a background of family of first gen immigrants, however, I do have family that is in that position. My family was well established (since the 1600's or so) in the country where I was born.
No... You make enough quality comments that I remember your username, so I think you already have that one in the bag. Looking forward to more from you as well.
All very well to have a plan, and I'm sure some people manage to successfully "repurpose" themselves, but historically the way this plays out is that redundant workers live out their days in relative poverty and it's their children/grandchildren who find new opportunities out of economic necessity. Usually takes 2-3 generations for the impact on workers to fully shake out.
Just to clarify, you didn't actually look up the publications it was citing? For example, you just stayed in ChatGPT web and used the resources it provided there? Not ridiculing you of course, but am just curious. The last paper I wrote a couple months back I had GPT search out the publications for me, but I would always open a new tab and retrieve the actual publication.
I didn't because I wasn't really doing anything serious to my mind, I think? basically felt like watching an episode of pbs spacetime, I think the difference is it's more like playing a video game while thinking you're watching an episode of spacetime, if that makes sense? I don't use chatgpt for me real work that much, and I'm not a scientist, so it was for me just mucking around, it pushed me slightly over a line into "I was just playing but now this seems real", it didn't occur to me to go back through and check all the papers, I guess because quite a lot of chatting had happened since then and, I dunno, I just didn't think to? Not sure that makes much sense. This was also over a year ago, during the time they had the gpt4o sycophancy mode that made the news, and it wasn't backed by webserch, so I took for granted what was in it's training data. No good excuse I'm afraid. tldr: poor critical thinking skills on my part there! :)
I would agree in theory, but whom is the judge of whether communicating that dim view is an insult or not?
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