MarceliusK's comments

On: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

[MarceliusK]

What investigators often look for isn't just wallet age, but funding patterns, timing, and linkages between wallets

On: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

[MarceliusK]

Prediction markets are probably most "accurate" when at least some participants have genuinely superior information

On: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

[MarceliusK]

I think this is mixing up two different things: influence and knowledge

On: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

[MarceliusK]

In theory maybe, but in practice companies almost always do care about keeping things like release timing, product status or leadership decisions confidential. Even if they haven't publicly announced a policy about prediction markets specifically, it's usually covered under general confidentiality and acceptable use policies

On: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

[MarceliusK]

Makes you wonder how much "market accuracy" on these platforms is actually just leakage

On: Child's Play: Tech's new generation and the end of thinking

[MarceliusK]

Historically, tools that made thinking cheaper didn't eliminate thinkers...

On: Child's Play: Tech's new generation and the end of thinking

[MarceliusK]

The scary part is that you can't just "hire mastery" on demand. You have to grow it

On: Child's Play: Tech's new generation and the end of thinking

[MarceliusK]

I'm skeptical that this fully replaces thinking, though. It may replace certain forms of effort, but historically every increase in leverage just shifts where the bottleneck is

On: Skip the Tips: A game to select "No Tip" but dark patterns try to stop you

[MarceliusK]

At minimum, the default should be "pay exact amount"

On: Skip the Tips: A game to select "No Tip" but dark patterns try to stop you

[MarceliusK]

The bigger issue, to me, is that the burden is on customers at all. That's what creates all this awkwardness and moral accounting in the first place