I would categorize this in the "expertise that people internalize but never figure out how to verbalize" department, and that is a department we have no way to teach an LLM because if nobody is writing out those unspoken, subconscious rules then the LLM has nothing to read about them in its training data.
> and that is a department we have no way to teach an LLM because if nobody is writing out those unspoken, subconscious rules then the LLM has nothing to read about them in its training data.
I think on the contrary, LLM providers accumulate huge logs of interaction with their users, which elicit that tacit knowledge and mine it and humans cooperate willingly in order to solve their tasks. Just imagine the corpus of sessions for scientific research, education or software development, it is probably the largest such collection ever to exist. Trillions of HITL tokens per day flow into those logs, carrying our perspectives, choices, original ideas and tacit knowledge. I call this the "human-AI experience flywheel". It's the new stackoverflow, next model generation is based on interaction data from previous one.
My favorite example of this is knowing how to untangle a big pile of cables. There are robots now which can untie a single knotted cable, but I don't think any can do a pile of cables yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp-94rsherE
Good point. Same probably applies to code as well, coders much tell us why they write the cde the way they did. And if they have comments in their code, those are highly untrustworthy because noboy fixes comments if the code works.
One thing I want to know is how porn spam (that is, spam containing pornographic image attachments) vanished so suddenly in the early 2000s. It used to be a huge segment of spam, and then one day it all just vanished.
So.. what made it go away, and how could learning about that help us make all the rest of it go away too?
Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal stopped processing payments for adult sites that used deceptive marketing. Hosting providers terminated accounts that sent image-based spam because the legal risk was too high. The same approach would work for other spam types. Target the payment processors, the hosting providers and make spam financially unsustainable.
> We are very close to the point where if Claude and ChatGPT APIs are down, companies cannot function.
Contrast with Gmail/Gsuite/Outlook365/QuickbooksOnline/etc are down, though.
What you cite here isn't a direct attack on AI but on centralized service provision in general. Unfortunately that battle has been lost for decades, now.
None of those are doing the actual development. Here we are talking about a technology people delegate judgement, technical expertise to. It’s way, way deeper of an integration than a standard saas
It died before AI came around and today's coding agents are somewhere upwards of twice as competent as whatever the state of the art of automatic coding was in 2020. 8I
A good chunk of that was one-time gains from shifting GPU and memory architectures to better match what LLMs need at scale as well as some algorithmic improvements. Most of the low-hanging architecture optimization has already been harvested. We'll certainly have more algorithmic gains but the consensus is they'll generally be smaller and less frequent.
There's always a chance we'll have some dramatic gains far larger than DeepSeek's optimizations a year ago, but it hasn't happened again yet at even that scale. It would be nice but I certainly wouldn't count on it.
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